Market Update – February 9 – FedSpeak supports USD, but the Bard bombs.
Trading Leveraged Products is risky
FEDSpeak – in virtual union about higher rates (along with Dimon “too early to declare victory vs. inflation”) – Fed Funds terminal rate now 5.122%. USDindex holds at 1-mth highs in flat FX markets, US10yr yield 3.653. Google’s AI the “Bard” bombed (got a wrong answer in a promo demo) – #Alphabet shares tanked -9% at one point but closed -7.7% before recovering back to flat after hours. One to Watch at US Open later, along with #DISNEY – Earnings & Revenue beat (+5.4% after hours)- Iger announced 7k job losses (3.6%) as Disney+ subscribers fell for first time since launch in 2019. #TOYOTA profits up 23% overnight & Siemens & Volvo earnings also beat too. USOIL up again to $78.50, Gold holds key $1880, BTC $22.6k.
*FX USD Index holds at 103.00 but a tad cooler today at 103.13, EUR holds over 1.0700 at 1.0734, JPY holds over 131.00 at 131.25 and Sterling (best performer overnight) is testing 121.00 from 1.2025 lows on Wednesday.
*Stocks – The US markets tanked (-0.61% to 1.68%) led by #Alphabet US500 -1.11% (-46.14) 4117, holding the key 4100. US500 FUTS struggled at 4175 resistance, 4145 now.
*Commodities – USOil – Futures rallied again to trade at $78.50 today from $72.20 lows on Monday. Gold – Advanced from $1865 lows yesterday to $1880 resistance again now.
*Cryptocurrencies – BTC – Tested $22.3k lows yesterday, before lifting back to $22.7k now.
Today – EU Leaders Summit (inc.Zelenskiy), US Weekly Claims, Speeches from BoE’s Bailey, Pill, Tenreyro, Haskel, ECB’s de Guindos, . Earnings PepsiCo, Phillip Morris, AbbVie, PayPal & Kellogg.
Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) GBPAUD (+0.65%). Sank from a test of 1.7450 yesterday to 1.7350, before rallying again to 1.7380 today. MA’s now flat, MACD histogram & signal line positive but declining, RSI 48.75 & neutral, H1 ATR 0.00200, Daily ATR 0.01558.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
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Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Market Update – February 10 – Hawkish Fedspeak & a Japanese Surprise.
Trading Leveraged Products is risky
FEDSpeak (Barkin) – remains Hawkish – Stocks fell again the NASDAQ tumbled -1.02%, while the S&P 500 slid –0.88%, and the Dow lost -0.73%. #TSLA (+3.00%) bucked the trend. All eyes on the credit market as the 2/10yr rate remains 80 bp+ inverted 7 Terminal rate edges higher to 5.15%. Weekly Claims Overnight RBA mins. more hawkishness and worries over higher inflation, China CPI dipped, Japanese PPI unchanged, and potential new BOJ Governor Amamiya – “appropriate to maintain ultra loose monetary policy” and the “Yield Curve Controls do not need more flexibility”. However, UK GDP -0.5% December, avoids recession by a whisper. Raft of other data biased to the upside. USOIL cools but holds $78.00, Gold lost close to 2% and BTC down over 5% at $21.8k as the SEC turns up the regulation heat.
BREAKING _ #JPY rallies +1.00% as NIkkei report that Kazuo Ueda is the preferred candidate to replace Gov. Kuroda. Aa apparent less Dovish candidate than other candidates. #USDJPY down to 130.80 from 131.85 highs earlier today.
*FX – USD Index holds 103.00 at 103.13, up from 102.50 lows yesterday, EUR holds over 1.0700 at 1.0734, down from a 1.0790 on Thursday, Sterling ran from 1.2060 lows to 1.2180 highs yesterday before testing back to 1.2100 now.
*Stocks – The US markets slumped again (-0.61% to 1.68%) led by #GOOGL -4.54% US500 -0.88% (-36.36) 4081, breaching the key 4100. US500 FUTS 4088 now.
*Commodities – USOil – Futures topped at $78.50 yesterday before sinking to $76.50 and back to $77.70 now and heading for a +5% gain this week. Gold – tanked from $1890 highs yesterday to $1854 lows before recovering $1860.
*Cryptocurrencies – BTC – Tested $21.6k lows today, down -8.7% from the weekly high on Wednesday over $23.4k.
Today – Canadian Jobs Report, US UoM Consumer Sentiment, ECB TLTRO III, EU Leaders Summit, Speeches from Fed’s Waller & Harker, ECB’s Schnabel, BoE’s Pill.
Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) GBPJPY (-0.72%). Tanked on the Nikkei scoop regarding next BOJ Governor. Sank from a test of 159.60 earlier to 158.00 now. MA’s now lower, MACD histogram & signal line positive but declining, RSI 26.05 & OS, H1 ATR 0.2900, Daily ATR 1.558.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
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Редактировалось: 1 раз (Последний: 10 февраля 2023 в 11:33)
The consistency of the hawkish message, that rates are going higher and will remain in restrictive territory, is finally hitting home and yields rose in sync and weighed heavily on stocks and bonds this year.
*Nikkei loses 1%, US500 futures 0.4%, US Dollar extends gains before US CPI & retail data. Asian shares fell ahead of the data but also due to the weak earnings that weighed on the sentiment.
*Lyft, Tokyo Electron (-4.39%), SoftBank (-1.12%), Advantest (-1.57%), Shiseido (-3.97%), Olympus (-2.25%).
In case you missed it, the Morgan Stanley Market Sentiment Indicator (MSI) has turned risk negative & the GS program trading desk writes: “Inflecting CTA flow could translate to an approx. 20% sell off in US equities over a month in a down tape scenario”.
*FX – USDIndex UP – saw a high of 103.70 before correcting to currently 103.44. Reuters: “Risks could be to the upside given a re-analysis of seasonal factors released last week saw upward revisions to CPI in December and November. That lifted core inflation on a 3-month annualised basis to 4.3%, from 3.1%.”
*EUR & GBP – extend losses against USD – 1.0680 & 1.2057 respectively.
*JPY – held above 132 area on reports that Japan’s government is likely to appoint academic Kazuo Ueda as the- next BOJ governor, a surprise choice that could see the country finally align with other major economies in raising interest rates.
*USDJPY – if 132.80 is broken, next R: 134.80.
*Commodities – USOil – steady at 79 after +2% spike. If higher inflation then concerns could increase that the move would slow economic activity and demand for oil. Russia to cut oil output by 500,000 bpd in March.
*Reuters – “Oil may resume its rally in 2023 as Chinese demand recovers after COVID curbs were scrapped and lack of investment limits growth in supply, OPEC country officials told Reuters, with a growing number seeing a possible return to $100 a barrel.”
*Gold – sideways at $1856-1867.
*Cryptocurrencies – BTC – Tested $21.3k lows, currently at $21.8k.
Today – We have heavy release schedule through mid-February. We expect Fed policy, US January retail sales, inflation indexes, housing starts, permits and Philly Fed indexes.
Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDJPY (+0.84%). Extends above 20 DMA. MAs remain aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line turned positive, RSI 72, H1 ATR 0.15, Daily ATR 0.861.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
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Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Markets have prepped for today’s CPI report over the last several sessions, while also pricing in a more hawkish FOMC stance going into Q2.
*Stocks high, Treasuries mixed and US Dollar sagged. Shorter dated Treasuries underperformed and were in the red most of the day as a “higher for longer” Fed stance was more fully priced in.
*Gains in Microsoft, Apple, and Meta helped boost tech Nasdaq. Microsoft +3.12%, pushing its market cap over $2 trillion, Meta +3.03% after the Financial Times reported that Meta is planning another round of layoffs. Tesla -1.14%.
*FX – USDIndex sagged – slumped to 102.93 today, from an overnight high of 103.83, helped by a rebound in USDJPY.
*EUR & GBP – extend losses against USD – 1.0737 & 1.2170 respectively. UK ILO unemployment held steady but employment rose in the three months to December. The tight labour market and wide spread strike action is forcing companies to up wage offers and regular pay in order to keep hold of skilled staff.
*JPY – just a breath below 133 before pullback to 132 again. The Yen recouped losses as Japan nominated a new central bank governor in a closely watched decision & as Japan’s Q4 GDP growth lags below expectations.
*The US100 led the way with a 1.48% bounce, followed by the US500’s 1.14% advance, while the US30 was up 1.11%.
*USOil – down at 79 area again but stands above 20-DMA. It fell after the US unveiled a plan to release supplies from its strategic reserves, offsetting price pressures triggered by rising demand in China and Russia’s plan to cut output. (Reuters)
*Gold – sideways for a 3rd day at $1856-1867.
*Cryptocurrencies – BTC – at $21.7k.
Today – All eyes are on US Inflation. EU prelim GDP is also on tap.
Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDJPY (-0.65%). Holds at 20 DMA. MAs flattened, MACD lines are at 0, RSI 44 presenting that pullback has run out of steam. H1 ATR 0.146, Daily ATR 0.883.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
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Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Market Update – February 15 – CPI Data Done – Retail Sales Next.
Trading Leveraged Products is risky
US CPI DATA provided a real mixed bag. Monthly data higher & annual data lower to 6.4% from 6.5% but missed expectations of 6.2%. A volatile session – USD finishing higher and Stocks (-0.46% to +0.57%) were mixed. The 2yr yield curve rose further and the inversion between that and the 10yr curve widened to -83bp. The Fed Funds Futures is now pushing the terminal rate over the 5.25% level. Overnight RBA’s LOWE issued a gloomy outlook & “unsure how high rates can go” – AUD tanked, Kishida said Ueda was the “best” candidate and unsure on policy change. Asian markets biased lower. GBP – CPI cools (10.1% vs. 10.3% & 10.5%) RPI holds at 13.4%.
*FX – USD Index holds 103.00 at 103.43, up from 102.35 lows yesterday, EUR back down to test 1.0700 today after a brief sojourn to 1.0800, following US CPI. Sterling spiked to 1.2270 highs but is below 1.2100 now at 1.2085 post UK CPI & RPI.
*Stocks – The US markets mixed again (-0.46% to +0.57%) led by #TSLA +7.51 & #NVDA +5.54% (Buffet has increased stake in #APPL) US500 flat -0.03% (-1.16) 4136, holding the key 4100. US500 FUTS lower at 4122 now.
*Commodities – USOil – Futures topped at $80.60 yesterday before sinking under $78.00 now as US private Inventories rose (EIA data today). Gold – tanked from $1870 highs yesterday to $1836 lows today on a stronger USD.
*Cryptocurrencies – BTC – Tested $21.5k lows again yesterday before retaking $22k now.
Today – EZ Industrial Production, US Retail Sales, Empire State Manu., Ind. Prod. & Japanese Trade Balance, Speech from ECB’s Lagarde. Earnings: Heineken, (beat) Kering, (miss) Barclays (miss -7.01%), Glencore, (miss -2.42%) Cisco, Biogen, Analog Devices, Marathon Oil & Shopify.
Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDUSD (-1.01%). Tanked over 1% following LOWE’s testimony. Sank from a test of 0.7030 yesterday to under 0.6900 now. MA’s aligned lower, MACD histogram & signal line negative & declining, RSI 26.30 & OS, H1 ATR 0.00150, Daily ATR 0.00903.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.
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Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Market Update – February 16 – USD & Yields hit new recent highs & Stocks bounce.
Trading Leveraged Products is risky
A big beat for US Retail Sales, lifted the USD, Treasury Yields and global stock markets, with a raft of “soft landing” scenarios swirling and even talk of a “no landing”, a situation where inflation cools quickly, the economy grows steadily and unemployment remains low without having a knock-on effect for inflation. A real disparity in views now emerging. Goldman Sachs cut the chance of a US recession in the next 12 months to 25%, from 35%; US 2yr/10yr yield curve at -87bp as the 10yr hits a 7-week high. Overnight: Japan reported it’s largest ever trade deficit at $174 billion as imports surged due to high energy costs with exports unable to compensate. AUD lower after a slump in jobs (-11.5k vs +20k) & unemployment up (3.7% from 3.5%).
*FX – USD Index tested into 104.00 for a 28-day high. Back to 103.65 now. EUR tested the weekly low at 1.0670 before recovering 1.0700, JPY breached 134.00 (new 28-day high) & tardes at 133.86 now. Sterling declined from 1.2175 to once again bounce from below 1.2000 to trade at 1.2050 now. Nicola Sturgeon the First Minister of Scotland announced a shock resignation, that will likely strike a blow for Scottish independence and increase the chances of the Labour Party at next years general election.
*Stocks – The US markets rose into close after a weak open. (+0.11% to +0.92%) Movers – #ABNB +13.35% & COIN +17.5%, OXY & PXD both shed over -5.2%. US500 0.28% (11.47) 4147, holding the key 4100. US500 FUTS 4161 now.
*Commodities – USOil – Futures dropped to $77.20, 5-day lows, yesterday after a very large inventories build of 16.3m barrels vs. 2.4m barrels last week. Prices have recovered to $79.20 today. Gold – tested the support level at $1830 yesterday before recovering to $1840.
*Cryptocurrencies – BTC – Surged over +10% yesterday from $22.0k lows, to breach the key $24k resistance area and test to 24.9k highs.
Today – US Building Permits/Housing Starts, Philly Fed, PPI, Weekly Claims. Speeches from Fed’s Bullard, Cook & Mester, ECB’s Lane, Panetta & de Guindos, BoE’s Pill. EARNINGS – Pernod Ricard (miss), Commerzbank, (+7.5%) Orange, Airbus, Standard Chartered (+2.11%), Nestle (in-line -0.49%) , Paramount & Dropbox.
Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) USDJPY (-0.34%). Rallied to 134.35 yesterday but has dipped to 133.75 now. MA’s now flat, MACD histogram & signal line positive but declining, RSI 51.42, H1 ATR 0.196, Daily ATR 1.588.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.
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Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Market Update – February 17 – Data Continue to Surprise.
Trading Leveraged Products is risky
Hawkish policy outlooks from Bullard and Mester (50 bps boosts from both), on top of more strong economic reports, added to the selling pressures in Treasuries and on Stocks. PPI and jobless claims, on top of the hot CPI, nonfarm payrolls, and retail sales reports added to the bearish impact but boosted the safety of USD along with pricing in of rate hikes.
24% of global fund managers now expect a recession, down from 77% in November, according to a recent survey by BofA Global Research.
*USD Index spiked to 104.40.
*GBP – This morning, retail sales volumes unexpectedly rose by 0.5% in monthly terms in January but the overall picture remained one of weak demand from inflation-hit consumers. GBPUSD – at 200-DMA, i.e. 1.1936 – Next Support: 1.1840.
*Stocks – The US markets dipped in the last trading hour of US session. US100 (-1.78%), US500 (-1.38%), US30 (-1.26% at close). Tesla (-5.69%) laid off 4% of NY employees & recalled 362,000 US vehicles over Full Self-Driving software. NatWest (+4.97% afterhours, -9% in London currently) profit jumps by a third on revenue boost from rate rises. Allianz (currently +0.55%) swung to a fourth-quarter net profit, marking a return to the black. Mercedes (currently +0.33%) warned of lower earnings this year due to economic uncertainty.
*Commodities – USOil – Futures dropped to $77.26, Wednesday’s floor, as a hawkish FED could hit fuel demand even as crude stockpiles grow. It held 34-week below 20-WMA.
*Gold – drifts below S1 at $1822 today. Next support at $1818 and $1809.
*Cryptocurrencies – BTC – Plummeted to $23,317 on USD strength. Reuters Exclusive: Crypto giant Binance moved $400 million from US partner to firm managed by CEO Zhao.
Today – Speeches from Fed’s Barkin and Bowman. EARNINGS – Deere & Company.
Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDUSD (-0.91%). Dip to 0.6195 now. MAs extend lower, MACD histogram & signal line negative and declining, RSI 22.80, H1 ATR 0.00117, Daily ATR 0.0080.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
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Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
The minutes of the RBA meeting showed that the committee believes the cash rate is currently lower than in many economies, while the data showed a higher than expected breadth and persistence of inflation. They supported continued rate hikes in the coming months (25 bps or 50 bps may be considered, with medium-term inflation expectations holding up well.) On peak interest rates, the Committee noted that this would depend on household income and expenditure outflows, employment and price movements.
Chart 1: Japanese manufacturing and services PMI. source: Trading Economics
On the other hand, the Asia Pacific trading session saw a mixed performance from Japan’s PMI data for February. In manufacturing, the data was pressured below the waning line for the fourth consecutive month and posted the largest decline since August 2020 at 47.4 vs. 48.9. The report showed that weak global demand led to a further decline in buying activity and that foreign sales were contracting at a faster pace, leading to the largest decline in both output and new orders since July 2020. In the services sector, the figure was recorded at 53.6, the highest since June last year. This was mainly due to a faster rate of growth in new orders and a modest increase in new business from abroad. Overall, the performance of the manufacturing and services PMIs offset each other, with the final Japanese composite PMI remaining unchanged at 50.7 in February.
Figure 2: Japanese inflation rate. Source: Trading Economics
Japanese inflation remains high. In December 2022, inflation in Japan rose to 4% year-on-year, the highest level since January 1991. A weaker Yen and higher imported raw material prices have contributed to the price spike. Not only that, but core inflation also recorded a 4% annual increase, the biggest rise since December 1981. BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said later that wages would rise in line with rising labour demand and inflation, but “believe inflation will slow down in the middle of fiscal 2023“.
Haruhiko Kuroda will attend his last monetary policy meeting in office next month. He will be succeeded by Kazuo Ueta, an academic and former member of the Bank of Japan’s policy committee. This figure is “an unknown quantity” to many, but according to Professor Shibu Takahashi, who has worked with him, Kazuo Ueta cannot be classified as a Hawk or a Dove. “He is a “pragmatic problem solver“. Kuroda’s decision on yield curve control (YCC) at the last meeting will be a key one. If he chooses not to act, then Kazuo Ueta could face “massive bond sell-off” pressure after taking office.
The next key event meanwhile for the Asia region is the RBNZ policy announcement tonight. The RBNZ last announced an interest rate decision around three months ago, when they raised rates by 75bp to bring rates to 4.25%. 400bp has been added to the tightening cycle, with November’s 75bp hike being the cycle’s most extreme increase. The decision is now between adding an additional 75bp to raise rates to 5% or sticking with 50bp to bring rates to 4.75%.
Not only has inflation fallen short of the RBNZ’s own expectations, but measures of corporate confidence have also fallen to an all-time low, and their business PSI has barely expanded, suggesting that the economy should have slowed. The inflation forecast over the next two years fell from 3.6% to 3.3%, but the forecast for next year is still historically high at 5.1%.
Overall, a 50bp increase is the most likely scenario, but a 75bp increase is also a possibility. Therefore, the focus is on how hawkish or not the RBNZ’s statements are perceived to be and whether or not they signal that the tightening cycle is coming to an end.
Technical Analysis: NZDUSD & AUDJPY
NZDUSD
NZDUSD, D1 – This currency pair has slipped below the 200-day EMA slope to test 0.6190 support. A break of this price level would show that the 0.5510 rebound has ended at 0.6537 (50% FR of 0.7463 – 0.5510 drawdown) and instead, the decline from the 0.7463 peak will resume back towards lower price levels. As long as the 0.6190 support remains intact, the upside movement could test 0.6389 and the 0.6537 interim high.
Overall, the price bias is still neutral despite the RSI mark at 39 and MACD is still in the selling zone. So certainly, the RBNZ event will be the next trend parameter.
AUDJPY The daily chart shows the AUDJPY rebounding from a 9-month low on 20 December last year, then rising and in an uptrend channel area. The pair is currently testing the key FR50.0% resistance at 92.70. A successful break would mean a continuation of the upside pattern for AUDJPY with the next resistance at 94 (FR 61.8%) and 96 (FR 78.6%), which intersects the top line of the uptrend channel. If pressured, it could fall back and test the 100-day SMA, then 91.40 (FR 38.2%; bottom line of the rising channel) and 89.70 (FR 23.6%).
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.
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Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Market Update – February 22 – It has gotten ugly out there!
Trading Leveraged Products is risky
US Stocks recorded their worst day in two months, Yields soared with 10-year Treasuries hitting three-month peak. Vix index, a measure of stock market volatility and often dubbed Wall Street’s “fear gauge”, rose above 23, its second highest level of the year. Fears over a more hawkish FOMC stance for a longer period of time continued to weigh on the markets. More strong data added further to the hawkish Fed case as well with the S&P Global PMIs climbing more than expected, with the services and composite indexes rising back into expansionary territory. US housing market weakened in January for the 12th straight month as continued high mortgage rates kept buyers on the sidelines. RBNZ delivered 50bp hike as expected.
*USDIndex slightly below 104, hovering around 23%. The market has fully priced in further rates hikes with a 25 bp increase on March 22, and another 25 bp on May 3.
*USDEUR– retests 1.06 area once again as markets keep pricing in ECB lifting rates to all-time high.
*USDStocks – Wall Street slumped. US100 (-2.50%), US500 (-2%), US30 (-2.06%). Stocks were also hurt by the disappointing guidance from Walmart (+0.61%) and Home Depot (-7.06%), as well as fears from increased competition from China as it reopens, with some indications of easing restrictions on tech. Tesla (-5.25%), Coinbase (-4.80%).
*USDLithium crashed by 30% – Could affect EV manufacturers!
*USDCommodities – USOil dropped to $75.55.
*USDGold – steady at $1838.
*USDCryptocurrencies – BTC – Slightly lower to $24,050.
*USDCoinbase (-4.80%) beat earnings but net income of $605 million while net income was a loss of $557 million. Coinbase shares, which lost about two-thirds of their value over the last year, have rallied sharply since the start of 2023, up roughly 80%. (Boost from BTC rally.)
Today - FOMC Meeting Minutes in the spotlight.
Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) US100. Retests 12000. MAs extend lower, MACD histogram & signal line negative, RSI 29.88.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
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Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Market Update – February 23 – On Pins & Needles For Nothing.
Trading Leveraged Products is risky
US Stocks held lower but pause the decline, US Dollar spiked to 104,50 and Yields richened on short covering following the recent rout, but ended off of the day’s lows as FOMC minutes fail to provide fresh clues to alter expectations on the path. The 10-year was down 3.7 bps to 3.916%.
FOMC minutes solidified views for further hikes and a higher funds rate through the year. Fed funds futures are suggesting some increased risk for a 50 bp increase at the March 21-22 meeting with the implied rate at 4.878%. May is showing a 5.132% rate, with June at 5.30%. The peak is still seen in July at 5.358%. One notable factor in the market, however, is a 5.02% rate is now priced in for January 2024.
*USDUSD Index slightly below 104.51, hovering around 23%. The market has fully priced in further rates hikes with a 25 bp increase on March 22, and another 25 bp on May 3.
*USDJPY – hovering around 134.70-134.90.
*USDStocks – wavered narrowly through the session before closing either side of unchanged with the US100 (0.13%), US500 (-0.16%), US30 (-0.26%).
*USDMixed earnings news: Pioneer Natural Resources Co. (#PXD.s) reported $7.8bn record profits in 2022 — more than triple its previous record of $2.1bn the previous year. Pioneer is becoming the latest oil producer to reap the rewards of high oil prices in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. ExxonMobil (#XOM.s) brought in a record $56bn. Rolls-Royce beats forecasts with 57% profit rise. BIDU -2.63% hopes its own artificial intelligence-powered chatbot will put the company back on the path to growth. Baidu stock is up 26% so far in 2023. Nvidia surged almost 9% after the bell.
*USDBank of Korea holds interest rates steady for first time in a year.
*USDCommodities – USOil dropped to $73.80 as IEA Europe’s energy war with Russia is not over, warns IEA. Also on geopolitics as Biden meets eastern european leaders, stresses unity, Chinese diplomat lauds Russia ties in Putin meeting. Brent crude posted its biggest single-day loss in 7 weeks. Markets reassess positions after the US Federal Reserve stoked worries about the economy by suggesting further rate hikes ahead.
*USDGold – steady above $1817 for more than a week.
*USDCryptocurrencies – BTC – rebounded to $24,350.
Today - Europe and Japan are to release annual inflation data, US Prelim GDP and unemployment claims, while Alibaba will also release its earnings.
Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) Palladium drifts to1450. MAs extend lower, MACD histogram & signal line negative, RSI 30.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
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Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Stocks had a limited rebound despite the hotter than expected inflation and jobs data. Yields rise when bond prices fall, so there was a marginal unwinding of some of this month’s hefty selloff. Data showed the labor market remains historically tight. Initial jobless claims, a proxy for layoffs, decreased by 3,000 to a seasonally adjusted 192,000 last week, well below the 2019 pre-pandemic average. It looks as though fears of the Fed hawkishness has peaked, at least for now, and the market is settling in for a long fight against inflation. Traders now see a 27% chance the Fed could lift rates by a more aggressive half point at its next meeting, up from just 1.3% a month ago.
*USDUSD Index remains choppy, holding the 104.00 level for a third day, but is off its 104.68 overnight high.
*USDJPY rallied to 135.36 ahead of Friday’s hearing in the lower house of parliament on the nomination of Kazuo Ueda as the next BoJ governor, and after current BoJ Governor Kuroda said the Bank plans to maintain its accommodative stance, but it has fallen back to 134.00. Currently settled at 134.80.
*USDStocks – Stocks are firmer, with the US500 and US100 up about 0.6%, while the US30 is 0.45% higher. A pop in Nvidia (+14%) after an earnings beat is boosting chips and underpinning tech. Nvidia, one of the index’s biggest constituents, said late Wednesday that it is expecting an AI-driven boom and a recovery in its videogame business. Wayfair shares dropped by -23%. The online furniture retailer said it lost 5 million customers in 2022 and posted an annual net loss of $1.3 billion. Moderna’s stock slid by -6.7%, after the drugmaker reported lower quarterly revenue and earnings, as demand for its Covid-19 vaccine fell.
*USDCommodities – USOil rebounded to $76.30 as the prospect of lower exports from Russia offset rising inventories in the United States, despite US inventories being at their highest level since May 2021.
*USDGold – steady above $1817.
*USDCryptocurrencies – BTC – rebounded to $23,800.
Today - US PCE, Home Sales and US Michigan Index.
Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) USOIL (+1.23%) recovers to 76.30. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line turn positive, RSI 68. ATR (1H) at 0.25 and ATR(D) at 2.11.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
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Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Market Update – February 28 – End Of Month Account Balancing.
Trading Leveraged Products is risky
After the worst week since September for stock markets last week, on Monday the US and Europe markets closed flat and end of month profit taking and account balancing has tipped Asia into the red today. The USD tested 2023 highs (105.35) yesterday but is lower today. Overnight: Japan reported strong CPI (3.15), Housing and Retail Sales data AUD Retail sales picked up (1.9% vs. -4.0%) and GER Import prices were weaker than expected as energy prices continue to decline.
*USDFX – USD Index tested into 105.35, just 4 pips shy of the 2023 high yesterday, back to 104.75 now. EUR tested lows at 1.0530 before recovering 1.0600, JPY breached 136.00 & trades at 136.606 now. Sterling rose over 0.98% yesterday (1.2070), its biggest daily gain in more than seven weeks. British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak struck a deal with the European Union on post-Brexit trade rules for Northern Ireland. Back to 1.2035 now.
*USDStocks – The US markets held on to gains after a strong open. (+0.22% to +0.63%) Movers – #TSLA +5.46% & Zoom gained +7% after hours on strong outlook. US500 0.31% (12.20) 3982, US500 FUTS 3979 now.
*USDCommodities – USOil – Futures dropped to test $75.00 lows, yesterday, before recovering to $76.25 today. Gold – tested the support level at $1805 yesterday before recovering to $1810 now.
*USDCryptocurrencies – BTC – Back to test $23k again today from last week’s rejection of $25k.
Today - French & Spanish Prelim. CPI, Swiss KOF, Canadian GDP, US Chicago PMI, Consumer Confidence, Speeches from BoE’s Pill, Cunliffe & Fed’s Goolsbee.
Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDUSD (-0.28%). Declined to 0.6130 yesterday before recovering to 0.6180 and back to 0.6145 now. MA’s aligned lower, MACD histogram & signal line negative & declining, RSI 38.60, H1 ATR 0.00080, Daily ATR 0.00637.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
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Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Market Update – March 1 – USD Holds at highs, PMI’s in Focus.
Trading Leveraged Products is risky
The USD held at recent highs to close the month, stocks were lower, weighed by weak US data and inflation in Europe surprisingly spiked in France and Spain. Overnight: Chinese PMI data showed manufacturing growing the fastest in 10-years and Services surging (56.3). Australian CPI sank significantly to 7.4% but GDP missed (0.5% vs 0.8%) pulling down the AUD. Upbeat Chinese data has lifted European Futures. Gold and Oil both had strong closes to a weak month.
*USDFX – USD Index tested back to 105.00 before declining to 104.65 now. EUR holds over 1.0600, from 1.0570 & capped by 1.0620 today. JPY topped at 136.70 yesterday tested below 136.00 & trades at 136.606 now. Sterling enthusiasm stalled at 1.2145 before declining to test the key 1.2000 zone again. Back to 1.2070 now.
*USDStocks – The US markets slipped again (-0.10% to -0.71%). Movers – #NVAX +6.8% & META +3.19%. GS -3.19% after problems in their consumer unit. #TSLA day today. US500 –0.30% (-12.90) 3970, US500 FUTS 3983 now.
*USDCommodities – USOil – Futures tested to $77.60 yesterday, dipped a $1.10 and are back to $77.60 now. Gold – tested below the support level at $1805 yesterday before a significant last day of the month rally to $1830. Trades at $1835 now.
*USDCryptocurrencies – BTC – Back to test $23k support yesterday and holds $23.7k now.
Today - EZ/UK/US Final PMIs, German CPI (Prelim.), US ISM Manufacturing PMI, New Zealand Export/Import Prices, Speeches from BoE’s Bailey & Fed’s Kashkari.
Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDJPY (+0.80%). Rallied from 83.75 yesterday to 84.85 now, with next resistance at 85.00. MA’s aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising, RSI 72.30 & in the OB zone, H1 ATR 0.158, Daily ATR 0.00637.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.
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Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Market Update – March 2 – ISM Price Hikes & Higher Yields dent sentiment.
Trading Leveraged Products is risky
The USD continues to hold onto recent gains despite US10yr Yields hitting to a four-month top of 4.018% and ISM Manu. prices spiking to 51.3, a five-month high, from 44.5 in January. US Stocks closed lower and this has rippled into Asian markets. TSLA day disappointed with no new vehicle announcements, #TSLA shares fell -5.6% after hours. Kashkari was as Hawkish as ever & Fed Fund Futures now have a 50 bp hike at 33% & a terminal rate in the 5.50%-5.75% range. Overnight: Japanese Capital Spending fell less than anticipated and Consumer Confidence failed to meet expectations but remains at 5-month highs too. Australian building approvals collapsed -27.6% from +15.3%.
*USDFX – USD Index tested back to 104.00 before recovering to 104.70 now. EUR holds over 1.0600, but rejected an advance to 1.0700, holds at 1.0635 today. JPY is back to Tuesday’s top at 136.80 from a test below 135.50. Sterling enthusiasm continued to evaporate breaching and breaking the key 1.2000 zone again today, trading at 1.1970 now.
*USDStocks – The US markets slipped again (+0.02% to -0.66%). Movers – #NVAX -25.92%, CAT +3.81% & HAL -3.53%. US500 –0.47% (-18.76) 3951, US500 FUTS lower again at 3928 now.
*USDCommodities – USOil – Futures tested to $77.70 yesterday and again today before dipping to $77.35 now. Gold – rallied again yesterday to $1844 but trades at $1830 support now.
*USDCryptocurrencies – BTC – Tested to $24k resistance yesterday and holds $23.3k now.
Today - EZ CPI (Flash) & Unemployment Rate, US Weekly Claims, Japanese CPI, BoE DMP & ECB Minutes, Speeches from Fed’s Waller & Kashkari, ECB’s Schnabel, BoE’s Pill.
Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) USDJPY (+0.50%). Rallied from 135.50 yesterday to 136.80 now, as US Yields rally and JPY weakens, next resistance at 137.00. MA’s aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising, RSI 69.30 & rising, H1 ATR 0.168, Daily ATR 1.210.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
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Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
The USD slipped from recent highs but holds at 104.75. Yields cooled, but the 2/10 yr yield curve remains inverted by 83 bp as the 2-year yield eyed 5% yesterday. US Stocks closed positive (DOW +1.05%) which has helped lift Asian markets (Nikkei +1.56%) along with a positive spin on the new Chinese economic targets that are due to be announced on Sunday. Sentiment also got a lift from “Dovish” Fedspeak from Bostic who prefers “slow & steady” 25 bp rate hikes to limit recession risks. Overnight: NAB CEO says 3 more RBA rate hikes are possible and Kashkari & Waller continued to press the Hawkish stance. Japanese Unemployment declined to 2.4% and Tokyo area CPI slipped to 3.3% from 3.4%. Chinese Services PMI beat significantly at 55.00 from 52.9 last time.
*USDFX – USDIndex rallied to over 105.00 to 105.13, but has cooled to 104.70 now. EUR holds over 1.0600, but declined yesterday to 1.0575 following a hot EZ CPI reading and US Claims. JPY breached 137.00 but has declined to 136.40 now and flat for the week so far. Sterling was a weak performer yesterday declining into Monday’s low at 1.1925 and remains below the key 1.2000 trading at 1.1980 now.
*USDStocks – The US markets rallied yesterday (+0.73% to +1.05%). Movers – #SI -57.72%, TSLA –5.85% & CRM +11.50%. US500 +0.76% (+29.96) 3981, US500 FUTS lower at 3975 now.
*USDCommodities – USOil – Futures tested to $78.50 yesterday and holds at $78.00 now, and up over 3.00 for the week. Gold – rallied again yesterday from $1830 support and trades at $1843 now.
*USDCryptocurrencies – BTC – tanked overnight by as much as -6% as Coinbase (-1.5%) declined payments to or from Silvergate Capital (-57.72%). Tested under $22k today to $21.85k before recovering to $22.3k now.
Today - EZ/UK/US Composite & Services PMIs, US ISM Services, Speeches from Fed’s Logan, Bostic, Bowman, Barkin & ECB’s de Guindos.
Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDUSD (+0.36%). Rallied from a test into the 0.6700 zone yesterday to 0.6760 now. Wednesday’s 0.6780 high is next key resistance. MA’s aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising, RSI 59.30 & rising, H1 ATR 0.00112, Daily ATR 0.00752.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
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Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Market Update – Risk Apettite ahead of a massive week!
Trading Leveraged Products is risky
China set a modest target for economic growth this year of around 5% on Sunday, and is poised to implement the biggest government shake-up in a decade. Disappointing the markets! USD under pressure. Yields decline and Stocks extend rally today after Friday’s strong close. Stronger than expected data releases have revived tightening speculation and kept a lid on local stocks.
Rate–sensitive tech shares outperformed in Japan, just like in the US, after comments from Richardmond Fed President Thomas Barkin that inflation is “likely past peak,” which helped to rein in long-term Treasury yields from multi-month highs. A day earlier, Atlanta Fed chief Raphael Bostic hinted that a peak in rates may come in summer.
*USDUSD under pressure retested 104.34 low. EUR extends to 1.0640, for a 2nd day in a row. JPY dipped 135.30 but has inclined to 135.70 now. Sterling jumped to 1.2040 but failed to exit February’s range.
*USDStocks – The US markets rallied amid overtightening comments from FED officials. Movers – US500 +0.76% 4054, US100 +0.76% 12341, US30 +0.76% 33408, GER40 up 0.2%, UK100 futures are flat.
*USDCommodities – USOil – holds gains above $78.80 from EIA small supply gain seen last week and as markets weigh prospects for China demand after latest economic data. Gold – had its best week since mid-January amid soft USD. Currently at $1858.20.
*USDCryptocurrencies – BTC – tanked on Friday to 21,858 amid Silvergate Failure (Silvergate Halts Crypto Payments After Suffering $1 Billion Loss). Currently recovering above $22k.
Today - Eurozone January retail sales, February S&P Global PMIs for Germany, France and Eurozone, Canadian Ivey PMI and US Factory Orders.
Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) GBPCHF (-0.49%). Dipped to 1.2128 on EU open. MA’s aligned lower, MACD histogram turn negative & signal line is at 0, RSI 29 & falling, H1 ATR 0.00116, Daily ATR 0.00776.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
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Редактировалось: 1 раз (Последний: 6 марта 2023 в 12:08)
Market Update – Buoyed investor sentiment ahead of Powell.
Trading Leveraged Products is risky
USD under pressure, Yields slightly higher buoyed by investor sentiment which also boosted Stocks after they sagged through US session. (Reuters) – China’s exports & imports dropping for January-February pointed to continued weakness in demand for the country’s products & foreign demand, backing government concerns that a global slowdown will be felt at home. RBA raised rates to 3.60% from 3.35% the highest in more than a decade but suggested it might be nearly done tightening as consumer spending was slowing and there was less risk of a wages-driven inflation blow-out. The bid fell out of the markets as trading turned more cautious post weak trade data which weighed on Chinese stocks and ahead of Fed Chair Powell’s Testimony.
*USDFutures traders are pricing in a 76% probability the Fed will raise rates by 25 basis points at its March 21 to 22 meeting and a 24% likelihood of a 50 bp increase.
*USDUSD holds at 10-day low area at 104.12 now. Euro retests 1.07, Sterling jumped to 1.2062 above 20-DMA. Aussie at a more than 2-month low of 0.6690.
*USDStocks – JPN225 +0.25% at 28,309 – US500 at 4058, US100 +1% at 12348, US30 +0.12% 33487.META will cut thousands of jobs as soon as this week in a fresh round of layoffs.
*USDCommodities – USOil – jumped to $80.93. China’s crude oil imports fell 1.3% in the first two months of 2023 from a year earlier, data showed on Tuesday, but analysts pointed to accelerating imports in February as a sign that fuel demand was rebounding after Beijing scrapped COVID-19 controls. Gold – slightly higher at $1850.98.
*USDCryptocurrencies – BTC – steady at $22k.
Today - Fed Chair Powell’s Testimony first to the Senate Banking Committee, and then to the House Finance Committee tomorrow. He is expected to reiterate the Fed’s hawkish stance of higher for longer rates.
Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) GBPAUD (+0.50%). Rallied to 1.7982. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line extend higher, RSI 75 & rising, H1 ATR 0.00271, Daily ATR 0.01426.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
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Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
USD rallied to 105.85 during Powell’s hawkish speech and holds above 105.57 since then. Yields rose and stock markets remain under pressure. The Nikkei was a notable exception overnight, with a 0.5% gain. Curves are inverting further in Germany and the US as concern that overly aggressive central bank action will hurt the recovery returns. The curve inverted to -104 bps, the most since 1981, from -93 bps.
A more hawkish than expected stance from Fed Chair Powell saw Treasury yields spike and Wall Street sink, while the dollar firmed. Although Powell did not really say anything new as he reiterated the “higher for longer” policy mantra, he did open the door for a return to a more aggressive 50 bp rate hike and the markets jumped through it. BlackRock sees ‘reasonable chance’ of Fed raising rates to 6%.
*USDUSD at 105.66 now. Euro drifted to 1.0544, Sterling broke 4-month support to 1.1861, below 20-WMA. Yen spiked to 137.54 on US Dollar strength.
*USDStocks – US500 tumbled 1.53% to close under the 4000 mark. The US100 slid -1.25%. The US30 dropped -1.72% with losses accelerating after the break below 33,000.
*USDCommodities – USOil – massive sell off from $80.95 to $77.13 on fears that more aggressive US interest rate hikes would hit demand. API shows US crude stocks fall helped oil to find a floor, while USD rise keeps lid on oil. Gold – 1-week low (-1.9%) at 1814.22.
*USDCryptocurrencies – BTC – at $21936.
Today - Fed Chair Powell’s Testimony to the House Finance Committee. US ADP, & BoC rate decision.
Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) XAUUSD (-1.9%). Plummeted to 1809. MAs flattened, MACD histogram & signal line remain well below 0, RSI 30 & flat, H1 ATR 2.32, Daily ATR 18.25.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
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Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
The damage from the Fed has been done and fears of an upshift to a faster pace of rate hikes this month, along with an even higher terminal rate and for a longer period of time, saw yields cheapen further. ADP and JOLTS showed a still hot labor market. USD steady at 105.60, Treasury yields nudged higher overnight, as did JGB rates ahead of the current BoJ meeting.The curve inverted further to -108 bps from -104.8 bps Tuesday, the most inverted since 1981. BOC left the policy rate unchanged at 4.50%, a tie for the highest rate since 2007 and indicated it would continue its quantitative tightening strategy.
Overnight: China’s Feb consumer inflation slowed (1.0% from 2.1%), Producer deflation deepened. In Japan Kazuo Ueda nomination as the next central bank governor was approved, signing off on a new leadership that will be tasked with steering a smooth exit from ultra-loose monetary policy.
*USD hovers near 3-month high at 105.66 now. Euro held 1.0520 floor, Sterling at 1.1850. Yen gained some ground against USD, pullback to 136.60. The Loonie lost some ground, but is recovering with USDCAD at 1.3820 (4-month high)
*Stocks – US100 rose by 0.40% to close to 12,252. The US500 +0.14%. The US30 dropped -0.18, slid to 32,740 today.
*Commodities – USOil – extended losses to $76.19. Steady today below PP at $76.70, as US crude stocks fell 1.7 million barrels (more than expected) and hopes for China demand (China’s crude oil imports fell 1.3%) contended with worries that more aggressive US interest rate rises would slow economic growth and dent oil consumption.
*Gold – in a tight range at $1811-$1816. Ahead of Jobs Gold may bounce to $1,825 before falling towards Feb. 28 low.
*Cryptocurrencies – BTC – below 50-DMA, retests at $21,536. Key supports at Feb low at 21,280 and year’s gap (19,888-20,350).
Today - US Initial Jobless claims.
Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) CADJPY (-0.49%). Plummeted to 98.99. MAs aligned lower, MACD histogram & signal line remain well below 0 and falling RSI 35 but flat, H1 ATR 0.137, Daily ATR 0.729.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
It is not only the Fed this time but also the US Banks and more precisely the SVB Financial Group SIVB which drifted by -60.41% yesterday. Shares of SVB, the parent of Silicon Valley Bank, disclosed the loss and sought to raise $2.25 billion in fresh capital by selling new shares. The 4 biggest US banks lost $47 bln in Market Value! (BoA, Citi, JP Morgan, Wells Fargo). Jobless Claims unexpectedly ticked up. Germany February final CPI remains sticky at +8.7% vs +8.7% y/y prelim. UK January monthly GDP +0.3% vs +0.1% m/m expected.
Overnight: BoJ left policy unchanged, as universally anticipated, in Governor Kuroda’s final meeting. The policy rate was left steady at -0.1%, along with a 0.5% cap on the 10-year JGB yield (YCC).The vote was a unanimous 9-0. JGB & Nikkei (-1.67%) sinks overnight, the Kuroda swansong maintains Yield Curve Control with no tweaks and outlook remains as Dovish as ever. China’s Xi Jinping takes third term as President with eye on US.
*USDIndex gapped down to 104.62 low.
*VIX climbed 18%, the biggest jump since June, to 22.42.
*Euro jumped to 1.0590, Sterling up at 1.1950. Yen jumped to 136.96 from 135.80. USDCAD at 1.3850 high.
*Treasury yields plunged Thursday, first richening on the cooling in weekly jobless claims, then extending lower as Wall Street slumped sharply. Technical buying also supported the rally in Treasuries.
*Stocks – US100 dove by -2.05%. The US500 -1.85%. The US30 dropped -1.66%. Russell slid -3%, Topix Banks -5.83%. PacWest Bancorp fell 25%, and First Republic Bank lost 17%. Charles Schwab Corp. fell 13%, while US Bancorp lost 7%. America’s biggest bank, JPMorgan Chase & Co., fell 5.4%. Twitter and Elon Musk face legal risks in FTC Probe. Tesla (-4.99%).
*USOil – dips to $74.93.
*Gold – rebounds to $1834.79 but looks to be capped around here by the hawkish Fed outlook.
*Cryptocurrencies – BTC – below $20K, filled January’s gap! Next supports at 2022 bottom!
Today - NFP and Canadian Labor data!
Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) VIX(+18%). Spiked to 22.42. MAs are now flat, MACD histogram & signal line remain well above 0, RSI 79 but flat, Stochastics falling, H1 ATR 0.36, Daily ATR 1.24.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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