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Date: 6th July 2026.

Gold Loses Momentum; Goldman Sachs Eyes 165 For The USDJPY.


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Gold retraces after three days of consecutive increases as the US Dollar attempts a rebound. Despite the recent US Dollar weakness, the price has not fallen below 100.00, allowing Gold to remain less attractive. The weakness of the Dollar was largely due to a softer tone by global central banks and weaker NFP data.

However, economists advise that they still expect the US Dollar Index to remain above 100.00 and possibly rise again, closer to 102.00. Recent reports note that even with a weaker NFP, markets still expect the Federal Reserve to hike more than other central banks. Particularly, Goldman Sachs has adjusted its USDJPY expectations from 155.00 to 165.00. According to Goldman Sachs, they expect the rate differentials to continue to remain wide.

Gold - Bullish Momentum Loss As USD Gains Momentum

After forming a double stop pattern during this morning’s Asian session, Gold fell 1.35% to a daily low. Investors are keen to see today’s early price movement due to Friday’s bank holiday. All metals are trading lower this morning except for Copper and Platinum, which are unchanged.

Markets continue to expect the Federal Reserve to increase interest rates. However, investors are unsure whether the Federal Reserve will hike on one, two or three occasions. Currently, only 22% of the market believes the Fed will not hike at all. This is also a similar stance to Citi, who believe the Fed talks hawkish but will not need to hike. According to the Chicago exchange, 42% of the market believe the Fed will hike on one occasion and 35% believe they will hike on more than one.

If the Federal Reserve is to hike on one occasion, the price of Gold will remain under pressure but potentially not decline to new lows. This is because one rate cut is partially priced into the market. However, if the Fed hikes on more than one occasion, Gold may struggle to maintain its value in the medium-term.


HFM - Gold 10-Minute Chart

Gold is showing bearish pressure on the 5-minute chart, with the price struggling below the immediate moving average at $4,161. As long as Gold remains below this area, potential downside targets sit at $4,151, $4,145, and $4,135. A break above $4,174 could shift momentum back towards $4,190–$4,202.

On the 30-minute chart, the outlook is mixed but still leans bearish in the near term. Shorter moving averages are pressuring the price, while longer moving averages continue to support the broader structure. However, regardless of bearish indications on some timeframes, traders should be cautious of corrections if the US Dollar Index retraces.

USDJPY - Goldman Sachs Increases Target to USDJPY

The USDJPY continues to be a favourite amongst investors looking for a carry trade, despite the Japanese intervention. The intervention from last week was successful in pushing the exchange rate away from the critical level above 163.00. However, this also gave a clear advantage to traders to purchase at a discounted price. The price is now witnessing strong upward price movement with clear bullish momentum.

Goldman Sachs has revised its USDJPY outlook higher, now expecting the JPY to weaken towards 165 per dollar over the next 12 months. This is due to higher US yields, Japan’s slower policy tightening and renewed demand for carry trades. The bank’s view suggests that even if Japanese authorities intervene, any JPY recovery may be short-lived. According to strategists at Goldman Sachs, the JPY can gain only if the US-Japan yield gap narrows.

For this reason, this week the USDJPY looks more attractive to buyers so far, but traders should be cautious of intervention volatility. Traders should also note that the USDCHF is also a popular carry trade at the moment.


HFM - USDJPY 30-Minute Chart

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Key Takeaways:

* Gold declined after three consecutive days of gains as the US Dollar attempted to recover.
* The US Dollar Index remains supported above 100.00, limiting Gold’s appeal despite recent Dollar weakness.
* Weaker NFP data softened Dollar momentum, but markets still expect the Fed to remain more hawkish than other central banks.
* Gold remains under short-term bearish pressure below $4,161 with downside targets at $4,144, $4,140, and $4,135.
* A break above $4,174 could shift Gold momentum higher towards $4,190–$4,202.
* Goldman Sachs raised its USDJPY forecast to 165, citing wide US-Japan rate differentials and renewed carry trade demand.
* USDJPY remains attractive to buyers, but traders should remain cautious of possible Japanese intervention and sharp volatility.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

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Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

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