US Stocks Pause as Oil Politics, Gold Volatility, and Macro Risks Intensify.
Trading Leveraged products is Risky
Wall Street opened Thursday with a softer tone as US stock futures pulled back following a choppy session that ended several days of gains for major indices. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones briefly hit fresh intraday peaks before reversing lower, while the Nasdaq held up better thanks to tech leadership.
This pause in equities reflects growing macro risk, geopolitical headlines, and commodity volatility, with markets increasingly pricing in uncertainty across multiple fronts.
Rotation and Risk Appetite
US stock futures dipped on Thursday morning as traders reset after a volatile session. Technology and growth stocks were mixed, while broader benchmarks like the S&P 500 and Dow Jones showed signs of fatigue after reaching intraday highs earlier in the week.
The Nasdaq Composite outperformed peers, supported by strength in megacap tech, including a rally in Alphabet shares that briefly lifted its market value above Apple’s, highlighting how leadership remains narrow and selective.
Oil Markets & Geopolitical Risk: Venezuela in Focus
Markets are digesting fresh developments out of Venezuela, where the US government’s involvement in energy exports has intensified geopolitical risk for markets and commodities.
US Policy Shift on Venezuelan Oil
The Trump administration has signalled an intent to control Venezuelan crude exports and manage revenues through US channels moving forward. Energy Secretary Chris Wright stated that the US plans to control future sales of Venezuelan oil indefinitely, a major shift in energy policy that could reshape regional supply dynamics and global risk premia.
Reuters also reported that oil sales from Venezuela to the US are expected to continue indefinitely, with sanctions being eased to allow initial shipments of more than 50 million barrels to flow to US markets.
Market Reaction & Sector Implications
These developments have moved oil-related equities. US oil stocks rose as investors priced in a potential revival of Venezuelan production and renewed access for major energy firms. Chevron, already the only US company with operational access, saw its position strengthen amid investor speculation. However, analysts caution that execution risks remain high due to Venezuela’s dilapidated infrastructure and political backlash, underscoring how geopolitical headlines can quickly shift from tailwinds to volatility drivers.
Key Macro Catalysts This Week
1. Friday Jobs Report
The upcoming US labour market report for December will be a major market focal point. With fewer major economic prints on the calendar, traders are assigning outsized importance to payrolls, unemployment figures, and wage growth data, all of which could meaningfully shift expectations around growth and monetary policy heading into Q1.
2. Supreme Court & Tariff Decisions
Headline risk remains elevated as markets await potential legal clarity on tariffs imposed under the Trump administration. The Supreme Court’s opinion, expected imminently, could add another layer of market impact, particularly for sectors sensitive to trade policy and input costs.
Gold & Silver: Technical Alert in Precious Metals
Commodities experienced a marked shift this week, particularly gold and silver, which had been among the most crowded trades heading into 2026.
After strong gains in late 2025, both metals are now pulling back:
* Gold has retraced close to its key support zone near the 100- and 200-hour moving average, a critical technical juncture for buyers.
* Silver is similarly testing its own 200-hour average, with recent price action indicating increased volatility and short-term bearish risk.
These moves illustrate how even favoured consensus trades can unwind rapidly when macro headlines and price risk align against them, a valuable reminder that risk management remains paramount for commodities positioning.
This Week’s Market Summary
Bullish Forces
* Tech leadership at CES, with AI and silicon innovation driving investor interest.
* Continued risk appetite supporting broader equity markets.
* Potential long-term energy supply implications from US–Venezuela policy developments.
Bearish/Volatility Drivers
* Macro uncertainty around labour market data and fiscal policy.
* Geopolitical risk in oil markets and trade policy headline risk.
* Corrections in crowded consensus positions like gold and silver.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
NFP Alert! Markets Search for Direction as Oil & Gold Rise and Defence Stocks Surge.
Trading Leveraged products is Risky
Asian stock markets edged modestly lower on Friday, while the US dollar remained supported, as investors turned cautious ahead of key US non-farm payrolls data and a highly anticipated US Supreme Court ruling on the legality of President Donald Trump’s global tariff policy, a decision that could reintroduce volatility across financial markets.
Market sentiment remained fragile amid elevated geopolitical tensions, which continued to underpin oil prices and support defence stocks. Developments in Venezuela, including a high-profile US military operation in Caracas, remained in focus. However, the dominant drivers for markets were political risk, macro uncertainty, and legal event risk, keeping investors sidelined ahead of major catalysts.
Asian Stock Markets Trade Mixed as Event Risk Limits Positioning
Across Asia, trading conditions remained subdued. MSCI’s broad Asia-Pacific index excluding Japan slipped 0.07%, hovering just below record highs reached earlier in the week.
Japan’s Nikkei outperformed regional peers, rallying 1.53% after Fast Retailing, the operator of the Uniqlo brand, reported strong earnings and issued upbeat guidance, providing a boost to Japanese equities.
European equity futures pointed to a mixed open, with EUROSTOXX 50 futures up 0.37%, while FTSE futures edged 0.20% lower.
Wall Street Steadies as Defence Stocks Surge on Budget Expectations
US stock markets ended the previous session largely unchanged, although defence and aerospace stocks extended gains, pushing the sector to fresh record highs. European defence stocks also continued to attract inflows, reflecting rising geopolitical risks and renewed focus on military spending.
Defence stocks surged after President Donald Trump called for a significant increase in US military spending, proposing a defence budget of $1.5 trillion by 2027, up sharply from the current level of around $901 billion. In a post on Truth Social, Trump said the higher budget would help build a ‘Dream Military’ and argued that strong tariff-generated revenues would make the increase affordable.
Today, S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures traded lower as investors positioned cautiously ahead of US labour market data.
US Non-Farm Payrolls in Focus as Fed Rate Cut Expectations Persist
Recent US data has pointed to cooling labour demand, with companies increasingly relying on productivity gains rather than expanding payrolls. Economists expect December’s non-farm payrolls report to show moderate job growth of around 60,000, alongside a slight decline in the unemployment rate to 4.5% from 4.6%.
The US economy shed 105,000 jobs in October, the steepest monthly decline in nearly five years, largely due to deferred buyouts among federal employees. Despite signs of softening, markets continue to price in at least two Federal Reserve rate cuts this year, even as policymakers’ December projections suggested a more cautious outlook. The Fed is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged at its upcoming meeting.
Gold Prices Rise Despite Stronger Dollar and Commodity Index Rebalancing
Gold prices edged higher today, extending weekly gains, even as a firmer US dollar and commodity index rebalancing pressures weighed on sentiment. Investors continued to position defensively ahead of US jobs data and broader policy uncertainty.
Gold rose 0.41% to $4,470.57 an ounce by 05:36 GMT, putting bullion on track for a weekly gain of more than 3%. Gold previously touched a record high of $4,549.71 on December 26. Meanwhile, US gold futures for February delivery gained 0.22% to $4,470.60.
The move higher came despite the US dollar trading near a one-month high, a factor that typically weighs on gold prices by increasing costs for non-dollar buyers. Markets were also watching for the Supreme Court ruling on Trump’s use of emergency tariff powers, adding another layer of uncertainty.
Traders and investors looking for real-time insights on today’s US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report can join our live streaming session. My colleague Michalis, HFM analyst, will break down the jobs data as it comes out, discuss impacts on gold, defence stocks, FX, and equities, and provide actionable market commentary.
Gold prices could face near-term pressure as the annual rebalancing of the Bloomberg Commodity Index gets underway. The process adjusts commodity weightings based on recent price performance and market conditions, potentially triggering futures selling.
This could result in futures contracts being sold in the market to comply with rebalancing requirements. An estimated $6.8 billion in silver futures and a similar amount in gold futures are projected to be sold, following the strong precious metals rally that increased their index weightings.
Nevertheless, Valecha noted that the longer-term fundamentals supporting gold and silver remain intact, suggesting any pullback may be technical rather than driven by a shift in underlying demand.
Dollar Steady, Yen weakens Oil Prices Extend Weekly Gains
In currency markets, the US dollar index edged 0.03% higher to 98.97. The euro slipped 0.04% to $1.1653, while the Japanese yen weakened 0.31% against the dollar.
The USD held its ground, particularly against the yen, with USD/JPY climbing past 157.25. This strength came despite robust Japanese data showing household spending jumped 2.9% year-on-year in November—well above expectations—and surged 6.2% month-on-month. While these figures signal short-term resilience in consumer activity, the broader outlook remains fragile as real wages continue to decline, falling 2.8% y/y and weighing on purchasing power.
The yen, however, appeared more affected by renewed tensions over China’s restrictions on rare-earth and magnet exports to Japan, a move tied to Taiwan-related remarks. Japanese officials expressed serious concern, indicating the matter would be raised with G7 partners and US counterparts, injecting a geopolitical risk premium into JPY trading.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Gold Hits All-Time Highs as the Fed Faces Political Pressure.
Trading Leveraged products is Risky
Gold rises to new all-time highs as US prosecutors opened a criminal investigation into Jerome Powell over the weekend. In addition, the latest NFP figures continue to support more interest rate cuts in 2026, also supporting Gold prices.
Analysts continue to point towards multiple reasons why institutions and investors are increasing Gold’s exposure levels. These include the threat to the Federal Reserve’s independence, employment data, and even US-EU tensions over Greenland. However, at what point is Gold too expensive?
HFM - Gold Daily Chart
Why Is the Federal Reserve Prompting Higher Gold Demand?
The tensions between the Federal Reserve and the Trump administration have been well documented. The US government believes the Federal Reserve is not cutting interest rates at the pace it should be. The Federal Funds Rate currently stands at 3.75%, which is 1.75% lower than the highs from 2024. That said, interest rates are still considerably higher than those seen over the past decade.
According to the Federal Reserve, they have been unable to cut at a faster pace due to tariffs creating uncertainties. More specifically, members of the Federal Open Market Committee had previously projected inflation would rise considerably due to tariffs. These projections have yet to materialise, providing Trump with additional grounds to criticize the Federal Reserve.
Tensions have been on the rise over the past few days as US prosecutors started a criminal investigation into the head of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell. The investigation is looking at whether Mr Powell misled Congress about the scope and cost of a major $2.5 billion renovation of the Federal Reserve’s Washington office.
President Trump and members of the administration have advised the cost is significantly higher than what the Chairman had disclosed. Particularly, Trump accused the Fed of adding ‘luxurious’ features to the renovation. However, Fed officials told journalists that these were later removed.
The question is whether Powell gave misleading or false testimony to Congress about the renovation. According to Jerome Powell, the investigation is political pressure to force the Federal Reserve to cut rates. He said it is also meant as personal retaliation for not cutting rates so far.
Powell told journalists the move raises concerns about the Fed’s independence. The risk to Federal Reserve independence is largely the development pushing Gold higher.
NFP - Mixed Employment Data
The NFP data from Friday had both positive and negative factors in the release. The Unemployment Rate fell back to 4.4%, lower than previous projections. However, the NFP Employment Change was only 50,000, lower than expectations.
The employment data for December indicates the sector remains resilient, but risks do remain. According to analysts, the figures indicate the need for interest rate cuts but are not weak enough to significantly pressure the Federal Reserve. The chances of a Federal Reserve rate cut still remain low, a 5% possibility. However, investors will monitor if this changes after tomorrow's CPI figures.
Gold (XAUUSD) - Technical Analysis
As Gold has been increasing for six consecutive months, most indicators, particularly momentum indicators, point towards the bullish trend continuing. The question is whether the price is trading at an overpriced level.
Certain timeframes do point towards the price potentially being overbought. For example, on the 4-hour timeframe, the price is trading at an overbought level on the RSI. In addition to this, on the daily timeframe, the price is forming a divergence pattern, which also signals a potential pullback.
Momentum and trend-based indicators continue to point upward, and the price stays close to its average, suggesting investors do not overvalue it. In addition, fundamental factors continue to support Gold’s price.
HFM - Gold 5-Minute Chart
Certain Wall Street banks are also supporting the bullish trend maintaining momentum this year. Goldman Sachs has given a target price of $4,900. Bank of America and JP Morgan have given a target of $5,000. However, in the short-term, for bullish signals to be valid, the price must remain above $4,542.75, according to the 200-bar MA.
Key Takeaways:
* Gold hit new all-time highs as US prosecutors launched a criminal investigation into Jerome Powell.
* Mixed NFP employment data supports the possibility of more Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026.
* Investors increase Gold exposure due to Fed independence risks, employment trends, and US-EU geopolitical tensions.
* Technical indicators show Gold’s bullish momentum continues, though some timeframes signal potential overbought conditions.
* Major banks forecast Gold at $4,900-$5,000, with key support at $4,542.75 maintaining short-term bullish signals.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Yen Slide Accelerates as Japanese Government Signals Concern.
Trading Leveraged products is Risky
The US Dollar continues to do well in 2026 despite the US government’s attempt to lower interest rates. The main gains are being seen against the Japanese Yen, which is witnessing high levels of volatility. The Japanese government has gone as far as discussing the decline with the US, which is further damaging market sentiment.
The USDJPY has risen in value for two consecutive weeks and is now trading at the highest level since July 2024. The US Dollar is increasing against most currencies, but the bullish price movement is primarily being driven by the decline in the Yen.
The main factors driving the Japanese Yen lower are rumours that the Japanese Prime Minister is considering snap elections towards the end of February, and ministers’ concern over the weakening of the Japanese Yen. In the past, the Japanese Government has intervened to boost the currency. However, this has not yet taken place.
Takaichi Calling Snap Elections?
The market is closely watching media reports suggesting that Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi may soon call a snap general election to capitalise on her strong approval ratings. The new Japanese Prime Minister’s ratings over the past few months have considerably risen.
However, analysts caution that moving towards an early vote could make it more difficult to secure parliamentary approval for the government’s proposed budget, which features substantial spending measures aimed at supporting households and the broader economy. As a result, the Japanese Yen has come under pressure.
The Japanese Yen is currently the worst-performing currency in 2026, declining 1.40% so far. However, many economists believe an intervention within the upcoming days is likely if the Yen does not rebound. However, some analysts are indicating the new Japanese government is likely to wait for a larger decline before intervening. The Financial Times indicates an exchange rate above $160.000 would significantly increase the possibility of a currency intervention.
Concerns Over The Japanese Yen’s Decline
The Japanese Finance Minister, Mr Katayama, spoke to journalists last night after meeting with his US counterpart. Both the US Treasury, Scott Bessent, and Mr Katayama expressed concerns over the Yen’s decline. According to reports, the main concern for both individuals is not the decline in the currency, but the pace of the decline and its one-sidedness.
US Government Attempt to Bring Rates Down
The Trump administration continues its attempt to bring interest rates down through multiple routes. The route receiving the most attention is the investigation into the Federal Reserve’s Chairman. However, the US is also considering a cap on credit card rates and has ordered the purchase of mortgage bonds.
The US government is not hiding the fact that both moves aim to bring down interest rates in order to boost the US property market. Economists also note that towards the end of the Biden administration the US property market was in its worst state since the previous financial crisis.
Certain Wall Street banks are also supporting the bullish trend maintaining momentum this year. Goldman Sachs has given a target price of $4,900. Bank of America and JP Morgan have given a target of $5,000. However, in the short-term, for bullish signals to be valid, the price must remain above $4,542.75, according to the 200-bar MA.
The US Dollar Index
The US Dollar Index started the week with a bearish price gap and a decline. However, the currency rose in value during the US session and is currently holding onto these gains this morning. Today’s Consumer Price Index (inflation) and tomorrow’s Producer Price Index (producer inflation) will be key.
Analysts expect the US inflation rate to remain at 2.7%, which is moderately above the Fed’s target. If the inflation rate falls below this level, more frequent rate cuts will become possible. As a result, the US Dollar may again witness bearish swings. However, if the figure is higher, market participants will price in higher interest rates for the upcoming months.
USDJPY - Technical Analysis
In terms of technical analysis, the US Dollar remains favourable. The US Dollar Index remains above both Moving Averages and VWAP. The USDJPY is also experiencing ‘buy’ signals from trend-based indicators.
HFM - USDJPY 6-Hour Chart
However, all traders are extremely cautious about a possible Japanese intervention and the upcoming inflation data. Nonetheless, the price of the USDJPY is likely to maintain buy signals if the exchange rate remains above 158.365. If the USDJPY drops below this level, signals are potentially likely to change.
Key Takeaways:
* The US Dollar strengthens in 2026 despite government efforts to push interest rates lower.
* USDJPY rises for two straight weeks, driven mainly by sharp Yen weakness.
* Snap election speculation and budget risks put additional pressure on the Japanese Yen.
* Economists expect possible yen intervention if USDJPY approaches or exceeds the 160 level.
* Inflation data and intervention risk dominate near-term USDJPY trading sentiment.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Slight Drop in Inflation Fails to Boost the Stock Markets.
Trading Leveraged products is Risky
The US released its inflation rate for December yesterday, confirming no significant rise in inflation. However, investors had previously set forecasts indicating a slight rise. Investors consider lower inflation rates to be positive for the stock market due to their impact on interest rates. Nonetheless, the stock market was not able to maintain its upward price momentum.
The S&P500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones initially saw a positive reaction to the Consumer Price Index (inflation) release. However, all ultimately ended the day lower with the Dow Jones witnessing the strongest decline (-0.76%).
Why is the stock market witnessing a decline despite better-than-expected inflation figures?
US Consumer Inflation
The US inflation rate held at 2.7%, matching analysts’ expectations. Core inflation also remained unchanged at 2.6%, despite analysts expecting it to rise to 2.7%. Because inflation came in slightly better than expected, the stock market initially rose. The S&P 500 gained 0.39%, the Nasdaq rose 0.50%, and the Dow Jones increased 0.40%.
The assets later declined as investors concluded that inflation was not low enough to convince the Federal Reserve to cut rates more frequently. According to reports, the chances of the Fed pausing this month rose from 95% to 97% and in March from 57% to 71%. As a result, the US Dollar rose in value while the stock market fell. In addition, investors are also monitoring the rise in Oil prices which have risen to a two-month high.
The Federal Reserve, inflation, and interest rates will remain in the spotlight this afternoon. The US will make public its producer inflation rate, which will again impact both future CPI and interest rates. In addition, six members of the Fed’s voting committee will speak this afternoon.
The Federal Open Market Committee members are likely to comment on the Fed’s independence, the investigation into the chairman, and interest rates. Those scheduled to give speeches include Mr Paulson, Mr Miran, Mr Kashkari, Mr Bostic, and Mr William. If the Fed maintains its hawkish tone and indicates no rate cuts in the first quarter, the stock market is likely to decline further.
Trump’s Push to Lower Interest Rates & Boost the Property Market
President Trump unveiled a plan to ban large institutional investors from buying family homes to curb rising housing prices. Critics argue the move is largely symbolic as investor strategies continue to evolve. Supporters believe the policy could help restore balance to the housing market. Possible consequences include legal challenges, increased market volatility, and only a modest effect on overall affordability.
In addition, the US administration is also considering capping interest rates on Credit Cards. In response to both developments, certain stocks fell in value. For example, American Express stocks have fallen 7%, Visa 8%, and Mastercard almost 6%.
JP Morgan Earnings Report
Other stocks witnessing a significant decline are JP Morgan Stocks, which fell 4.00%. JP Morgan delivered a mixed but solid earnings report, supported by strong trading revenue, steady net interest income, and resilient asset and wealth management performance. However, headline results were weighed down by higher credit reserves tied to the Apple Card acquisition and weaker investment banking activity.
The CEO was cautiously optimistic about the US economy while acknowledging regulatory and credit risks, leaving investor sentiment balanced between the bank’s underlying strength and near-term headwinds.
S&P500
The S&P 500 is one of the indices that is most exposed to assets negatively affected by this move. Out of the most influential stocks for the S&P 500, only 50% rose in value on Tuesday, which is not high enough to obtain a buy signal. In addition, the VIX index is also continuing to rise, pointing towards a lower risk appetite amongst traders.
Even with the recent decline, the price of the S&P 500 remains above the 75-Bar Exponential Moving Average. The RSI remains at a neutral level on the 2-hour chart and the price is trading below the VWAP. For this reason, the price is not obtaining an all-round signal pointing in one direction. However, after today’s Federal Reserve speeches and PPI release the index may form a stronger sense of direction.
In the short term, if the price remains below $6,961.45, the asset is likely to maintain its current sell signal from Moving Averages.
HFM - S&P 500 2-Hour Chart
Key Takeaways:
* US inflation came in slightly better than expected for stocks, but not low enough to shift Federal Reserve rate-cut expectations.
* Stocks initially rose after the CPI release but closed lower as investors priced in a prolonged Fed pause.
* Rising oil prices and a stronger US Dollar added further pressure to equity markets.
Trump’s proposals targeting housing investors and credit card rates weighed on financial and payment stocks.
* Market direction now hinges on upcoming PPI data and Federal Reserve speeches, with volatility increasing.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
From ETFs to Technicals: What’s Fuelling Silver’s 2026 Rally.
Trading Leveraged products is Risky
The best-performing asset in 2026 so far is Silver. Silver paused during the Asian session this morning after rising for four consecutive days. However, technical analysis is not yet indicating a prolonged downturn.
So, why is Silver the best-performing asset of 2026, and what are analysts predicting for 2026?
Factors driving Silver’s Bullish Momentum
The increase that Silver is experiencing is largely due to demand from institutional investors rather than physical demand. According to the latest reports and projections, demand for physical Silver is likely to slightly decrease over the next 12 months.
Institutions are buying Silver for similar reasons to Gold, however, Silver is much more volatile and cheaper to purchase. The slightly lower inflation readings from this week, projections for more frequent interest rate cuts, and questions over Fed independence are increasing demand.
Economists are not expecting the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates this month, nor in March 2026. For this reason, the US Dollar has slightly risen while stocks have fallen. However, economists do believe that in the second and third quarters of the year, the Fed will need to make frequent rate cuts. On average, economists believe the Fed will need to cut by 0.75% by the end of the year. This would take the Federal Fund Rate to 3.00%, the lowest since the summer of 2022.
For this reason, investors expect the Federal Reserve to delay cuts in the first quarter but eventually cut rates later in the year. At the same time, investors are incorporating political risks into their strategy, which is resulting in a need for Gold and Silver. These include the Federal Reserve’s independence and US global intentions such as within Greenland.
In addition, investors are also treading cautiously as the US Midterms will take place later in the year.
Investors Buying Silver ETFs
Market participants are reviewing the Silver Institute’s early 2025 outlook, which expects global industrial silver demand to fall 2% to 665 million ounces. The decline reflects trade policy uncertainty and reduced use in electronics and photochemical applications.
Demand for physical bars and coins is also expected to drop to a seven-year low, down 4% from 2024. However, strong investment inflows into Silver ETFs rose 18%, with net inflows of 187 million ounces. This is likely to offset weaker physical demand and help support prices, particularly as investors seek protection from inflation and currency volatility.
On the CME, Silver trading activity spiked on 7 January, with volumes reaching 195,000 contracts, well above the early-month average.
XAGUSD - Technical Analysis
HFM - 15-Minute Chart
Due to the bullish price movement, indicators and price action are understandably pointing towards Silver’s trend continuing. Even with the current retracement, the price fell to the previous low and did not necessarily form significant breakouts.
When looking at the 2-hour timeframe, the price of the metal remains above the key Moving Average, above the neutral area of the RSI, and the MACD. For this reason, indicators continue to point towards buyers maintaining control. Fundamental analysis also indicates this, with inflation reading slightly lower. The main risk for Silver and Gold is the rise in the US Dollar. If the US Dollar declines, Silver can potentially strengthen further.
The only indicators currently pointing towards a downward price movement are the 200-bar Moving Average on the 5-minute timeframe. The price currently remains below this level, giving a bearish bias. However, the price is currently rising and trading close to this level. If the price forms a bullish breakout at $90.185, the bearish bias is likely to fade.
Key Takeaways:
* Silver leads 2026 performance. It’s the top-performing asset so far, despite a brief pause after four consecutive days of gains.
* Institutional demand drives momentum. Growth is fuelled by ETFs and institutional buying rather than physical silver demand.
* Fed rate expectations influence buying. Investors anticipate rate cuts later in 2026, boosting silver and gold as hedges.
* Physical demand is declining. Industrial use and coins/bars are projected to drop, but ETF inflows (up 18%) support prices.
* Technical indicators remain bullish. Silver’s price is holding above key moving averages and RSI/MACD signals, suggesting buyers remain in control
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Новости
Фотогалерея
Клубы
Каталог
Оставить отзыв
Пользователи
Объявления
Хостинг
Технический анализ
Конкурсы фото
ПОЛНЫЙ СПИСОК
Блоги
