100$   !!

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Hotforex. Market Analysis and News.

  
: 850
Date : 2nd August 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 2nd August 2018.


""


FX News Today

European Fixed Income Outlook: Risk aversion intensified during the Asian session, which gave a fresh boost to global bond markets. 10-year Bund yields fell to a low of 0.4619% in opening trade and is currently down -0.7 bp, versus a -2.2 bp decline in 10-year Treasury yields and a -0.3 bp dip in 10-year JGB yields. Stock markets sold off in Asia, led by mainland Chinese bourses, US stock futures are also heading south and, for now, trade jitters have moved firmly back to the forefront as the earnings season continues. The Fed did the expected yesterday and left rates on hold, while laying the ground for a September move. The focus now turns to BoE, which is expected to hike the repo rate by a further 25 bp today. The calendar also has Eurozone PPI, the UK Construction PMI as well as bond sales in France and Spain.

FX Update: The Dollar has traded firmer against most currencies and more than reversed initial declines that were seen after the largely as-expected Fed policy announcement yesterday. The upgrade in the Feds assessment of the economy to strong from merely solid in the June statement provided reason to buy the Greenback on dips. The USDIndex posted a 3-day higher, while EURUSD concurrent pushed lower, to a 4-day low of 1.1640. USDJPY was once again an exception to the broader Dollar theme, with the pair settling in a narrow range centred around 111.60 so far today, holding well within the bounds of yesterdays range, though EUR-JPY and most other Yen crosses ebbed to 2- or 3-day lows, reflecting an underlying bid for the Japanese currency. This came concomitantly with the 10-year JGB yield rising to an 18-month high near 0.15%, pushing towards BoJs new 0.2% upside limit to its yield-curve control policy, though these moves stalled after BoJ member Amamiya in a speech today, reminded markets that the central bank will buy JGBs if yields rise rapidly, and that powerful easing remains appropriate as it will take time for the 2% inflation target to be achieved. Another incentive to buy Yen has been a fresh wobble in global stock markets, with the Trump administration confirming reports from late Tuesday that it is considering rising tariffs on $200 bln worth of Chinese imports, seen as a bargaining ploy by Trump ahead of Washington and Beijings return to the negotiations table, though China has returned fire by accusing the US of blackmailing.

Charts of the Day

""


Main Macro Events Today

* UK Construction PMI Expectations Is projected to fall to 52.8 in July, from Junes 53.1.

* BoE Monetary Policy & Rate Decision Expectations BoE expected to hike the repo rate by a further 25 bp to 0.75%.

* BoE Inflation Report BoE should leave the QE total at GBP 435 bln for government bond purchases and GBP 10 bln for corporate bond purchases

* BoE Gov. Carney Speech at 11:30 GMT

* US Unemployment Claims Expectations a 220k increase in unemployment claims is expected.

Support and Resistance levels

""


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
: 1 (: 27 2018 14:52)
: 850
Date : 3rd August 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 3rd August 2018.


""


FX News Today

Asian Market Wrap: 10-year Treasury yields held slightly below the 3% mark during the Asian session, 10-year JGB yields fell -1.0 bp at 0.103%. BoJs verbal intervention and unscheduled offer to buy bonds yesterday seems to have capped investors appetite to test the new BoJ tolerance on the 10-year yield for now. Meanwhile, long yields in China moved higher as the Yuan continues to slide. Stocks traded mixed across Asia. The Nikkei is up 0.08%, but the Topix fell -0.45% and is heading for its first weekly loss in a while after disappointing earnings reports. Despite this Japan overtook China as the worlds second largest stock market amid a slump in the Shanghai Composite Index this week. The index lost a further -0.05% so far today, the CSI 300 is down -0.585, as a weaker than expected Caixin/Markit Services PMI added to ongoing trade jitters. The ASX 200 lost 0.11% and US futures are also down.

FX Action: USDJPY has lifted to the upper 111.0s, reflecting a broadly softer Yen today as global stock markets stabilize. The 10-year JGB yield also fell to 0.103%, aided lower by scheduled BoJ purchases today, with the central bank making clear through its actions over the last day that it wont be a one-way street to its newly installed 0.2% upper yield limit. BoJ member Amamiya yesterday reminded markets, that the central bank will buy JGBs if yields rise rapidly, and that powerful easing remains appropriate as it will take time for the 2% inflation target to be achieved. Taking a step or two back, USDJPY has been trading with little overall direction since early 2017, turning about a 10 big figure range in drawn-out oscillations, pulled lower during risk-off phases in global markets and pulled higher when markets are more focused on underlying fundamentals. The range over this period has been 104.63 to 115.50, and there doesnt look much, at the moment, to suggest there will shift out of this trend. Near-to support is at 111.39-40.

Charts of the Day

""


Main Macro Events Today

* UK Service PMI Expectations It is projected at 54.9 after 55.1 in the month prior.

* EU Service PMI Expectations It is expected at 54.4, which should leave the composite reading at 54.3, unchanged from the preliminary reading and down from 54.9 in June.

* Non-Farm Payrolls Expectations The July employment report holds its usual top spot as the indicator of the month. We forecast a 190k increase in jobs as manufacturing remained healthy.

* Earnings and Unemployment Rate Expectations The unemployment rate is expected to dip back to 3.9%, while earnings should rise 0.3%. Nearly all labor market indicators have boasted of very tight conditions and extreme difficulty in finding qualified workers, which resulted in a huge jump in the labor force in June.

* Canada Trade Expectations is expected to narrow to -C$2.3 bln in June from -C$2.8 bln in May. Exports are seen growing 1.5% m/m in June after the 0.1% dip in May. Imports are projected to rise 0.5% in June after the 1.7% bounce in May that followed the 2.8% drop in April.

Support and Resistance levels

""


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
: 1 (: 27 2018 14:52)
: 850
Date : 6th August 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 6th August 2018.


""


Main Macro Events This Week

The aftermath of the mixed US July jobs report will be one of many factors resonating with the markets in the days ahead. There were some tall hurdles for investors to leap recently, including firm US Q2 GDP, FOMC, a $1 tln Apple market cap, and the solid underlying employment data, but none have derailed the economic outlook, which remains mostly positive.

In the meantime, trade and tariffs will continue to dominate the conversation after the US announced plans to raise levies from 10% to 25% on $200 bln of Chinese goods, while China prepped another $60 bln in tariffs. Attention will also remain on earnings, though the pace of their release will be slowing. And though the FOMC, ECB, BoE and BoJ are all out of the way for now, their range of gradualism remains impactful. In Australia-Asia, both the RBA and RBNZ are seen on hold, though the Philippines central bank may hike 50 bps to 4.00%.

United States: As for the US economic calendar, inflation statistics will be on tap and modest gains are expected in the monthly CPI and PPI readings in July, keeping the y/y readings above the Feds 2% target. As for the other data releases, the wholesale inventories are anticipated to be flat in June, but see a small gain for overall business inventories and a more moderate but still-strong increase in June consumer credit after a May surge.

Specifically, the week will kick off (Tuesday) with updates on JOLTS job openings and consumer credit is expected to rise $16.0 bln in June, following a $24.6 bln surge in May. The MBA mortgage market report will be updated (Wednesday), along with EIA energy inventories. Headline and core PPI are projected to rise 0.1% in July (Thursday), following a 0.3% increase in both measures in June, while initial jobless claims are estimated to fall 6k to 212k in the week ended August 4, following a 218k reading in the week of July 28. Also on tap (Thursday) is wholesale trade with inventories seen flat in June, as indicated in the advance report, following a 0.4% May gain, while sales are estimated to rise 0.8%, after a 2.5% surge in May. The week rounds out with a forecast of a 0.2% increase in the July headline CPI (Friday), following a benign 0.1% gain in June.

Canada: Canadas bond and stock markets are closed Monday for the Civic Holiday with trading resuming Tuesday. The July employment report (Friday) is the star of the show this week. A 25.0k gain is expected in total jobs during July following the 31.8k gain in June. Total average hourly earnings are seen expanding at a 3.9% y/y rate, matching the 3.9% clip in June that was the fastest since 2009. There is a trifecta of housing data this week June building permits (Wednesday), June new home price index (Thursday) and July housing starts (Thursday). The July Ivey PMI is due Tuesday.

Europe: ECB is effectively on holiday with no speeches scheduled this week and the next council meeting still more than a month away (September 13). Against that background, the release of the ECBs latest economic bulletin (Thursday) is unlikely to rock the boat.

There are plenty of data releases, although most of them second tier, and even the once so-important German manufacturing orders numbers (Monday) no longer have quite the market impact they used to have. The German industrial production data for June (Tuesday) are seen falling -0.6% m/m. More signs then that growth momentum is slowing down, which already has been evident in survey data. At the same time, the German sa trade surplus surplus (Tuesday) is expected to fall back slightly to EUR 20.0 bln with the June numbers from EUR 20.3 bln in May. Even if exports decline as expected, that alone is unlikely to quell criticism that Germanys economy remains too export oriented and the current account surplus too large. It will, however, add to concerns that the global tide toward protectionism is leaving its mark on the German and Eurozone economies. The data calendar also includes French and Italian production numbers as well as Italian trade, and inflation data from Portugal, Ireland and Greece.

UK: BoE last week delivered its second 25 bp rate hike of what can be best described as a hyper-gradual tightening cycle. And while signalling that the bias remains for higher rates, it also left markets in little doubt that policy will remain on hold until after the legal Brexit date, of March 29 next year. BoE will remain a little quiet on the Brexit front due to the summer lull in London and Brussels, though negotiations will be continuing from mid August.The calendar this week features the July BRC retail sales report (Tuesday) along with the Q2 GDP, June production, and June trade data (which are all due Friday).

Japan: The Q2 GDP release (Friday) is awaited for an update on last quarters growth. The 0.2% contraction was the first after nine straight quarters of growth and was surely disappointment for BoJ, which left its accommodative policy in place last week. And any trade-related slowdown in China could spell further bad news if a softening in demand erodes exports. Other data this week includes June personal income and PCE (Tuesday) should show the latter contracting at a -2.0% y/y clip from -3.9% y/y previously. Bad weather may have accounted for some of the weaker than expected May result. July bank loan figures are on tap (Wednesday), while the June current account (Thursday) should reveal a narrowing in the surplus to JPY 1,300 bln from 1,983 bln. June machinery orders (Friday) are forecast falling 1.0% m/m after the 3.7% May decline. July PPI (Friday) should warm to 3.0% y/y from 2.8%, while the June tertiary industry index (Friday) is penciled in at -0.1% m/m from 0.1%.

China: The July trade report (Wednesday) is anxiously awaited given the increase in trade-related frictions. A slight narrowing is looked-for to $40.0 bln after the June balance widened to $41.6 bln from $24.3 bln. The jump in May imports may have been an attempt to beat the tariffs, which went into effect early last month. The markets will look to the July numbers for any signs of trade related slowing. July CPI (Thursday) is estimated at 2.1% y/y from 1.9%, with July PPI (Thursday) expected to cool to 4.4% y/y from 4.7%. July loan growth and new Yuan loans are tentatively due Friday.

Australia: RBAs meeting (Tuesday) is the highlight, where no change is expected to the current 1.50% setting for the cash rate. RBA follows up the meeting with the quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy, which will provide updated growth and inflation projections. Governor Lowe speaks on Demographic Change and Recent Monetary Policy (Wednesday). Housing investment (Wednesday) is expected to rise 0.5% in June after the 1.1% gain in May.

New Zealand: RBNZ meeting (Thursday) is the main event. At the June meeting, RBNZ held rates at 1.75% and opened the door to a rate cut if necessary.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
: 1 (: 27 2018 14:53)
: 850
Date : 7th August 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 7th August 2018.


""


FX News Today

Asian Market Wrap: 20-year Treasury yields are up 0.4 bp at 2.943%, the 10-year JGB yield underperformed and climbed 1.0 bp to 1.03% as stock markets moved mostly higher across Asia, with trade quieter than usual as the summer lull sets in. Bourses in mainland China outperformed and the CSI 300 rose 1.64%. Nikkei managed gains of 0.65%, despite a stronger Yen, which was underpinned by a Reuters report suggesting BoJ had considered hiking rates this year. Earnings reports and a higher Oil prices had already underpinned a higher close in the US and the positive mood spilled over into the Asian session, although trade jitters and geopolitical concerns continue to lurk in the background. Meanwhile, the ASX underperformed and lost -0.42% despite RBA held its interest rate steady once again while maintaining a tightening bias, although with the inflation forecast cut slightly, RBA is expected to remain on hold well into next year. US stock futures are moving higher and the WTI future is also up with the September contract trading slightly above USD 69 per barrel.

RBA left the cash rate unchanged but tweaked the inflation outlook. The decision to leave the cash rate at 1.50% had been widely anticipated. On inflation, RBA Governor Lowes statement said that CPI is likely to be lower than previously expected in 2018, at 1.75%, below the 2%-3% target band, but at the same time inflation is seen rising more than previously forecast in 2019 and 2020. RBA said that it expects GDP growth to average a little more than 3% in 2018 and 2019. It stated that the unchanged policy is consistent with meeting the CPI target over time. Slower Chinese growth was noted. Market focus will now turn to upcoming release of the Statement on Monetary Policy (SMP), this Friday, for details on the forecast tweaks. The Australian Dollar initially dipped on Lowes statement before more than reversing the losses.

Charts of the Day

""


Main Macro Events Today

* Canadian Ivey PMI Expectations It is expected at 64.2, higher from 63.1 in June.

* US JOLTS & Consumer Credit Expectations Job openings anticipated to rise slightly at 6.74M in June, while Consumer credit is expected to rise $16.0 bln in June, following a $24.6 bln surge in May.

* NZ GDT Price Index

Support and Resistance levels

""


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
: 1 (: 27 2018 14:53)
: 850
Date : 8th August 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 8th August 2018.


""


FX News Today

Asian market wrap: Long yields moved broadly higher in Asia as stock markets gained. The 10-year JGB yield is up 0.9 bp at 0.111%, while 10-year Treasury yield fells back from highs and is down -0.4 bp at 2.969%. Stock markets started strong after the USA500 closed at the highest level since the Jan 26 peak, which helped investors to look past lingering trade jitters early in the session. Topix and Nikkei have wiped out most of their early gains, however, and as of 05:38 GMT were both up a mere 0.05% as the Yen strengthened against the Dollar. Chinese export growth unexpectedly accelerated and the trade surplus with the US was near record highs, but despite this Chinese markets underperformed and the CSI 300 is down -0.73%. The Hang Seng still managed a 0.50% gain and the ASX rose 0.22%. US futures are trading mixed and Oil prices are slightly higher with the September WTI future trading at USD 69.26 per barrel.

Chinas trade surplus narrowed to $28.1 bln in July from $41.5 bln in June. A modest narrowing was expected. Exports grew 12.2% y/y in July after a revised 11.2% gain (was +11.3%). Imports surged 27.3% y/y in July following the 14.1% gain in June. Exports to the US accounted for 19.3% of total exports in July, down slightly from the 19.7% in June, the largest share of any single country. Meanwhile, the share of imports from the US was 7.2% versus 7.8%, down from 9.2% as recently as December. Japan (9.0%), South Korea (9.7%) and Taiwan (8.5%) are the top three nations in terms of percentage of total imports.

Charts of the Day

""


Main Macro Events Today

* Canadian Building Permits Expectations Permits are seen rising 1.0% after a 4.7% bounce in May, new home prices are seen rising 0.1% after the flat reading in May and starts are projected to moderate to a 220.0k pace from the lofty 248.1k growth rate in June.

* US Crude Oil Inventories Expectations at -3.33M barrels this week from 3.8M last week.

* RBNZ Rate Decision and Press Conference At the June meeting, RBNZ held rates at 1.75% and opened the door to a rate cut if necessary. It is widely expected that policy will remain into next year.

Support and Resistance levels

""


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
: 1 (: 27 2018 14:53)
: 850
Date : 9th August 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 9th August 2018.


""


FX News Today

Asian Market wrap: 10-year Treasury yields are up 0.4 bp at 2.953%, the 10-year JGB yield is up 0.3 bp at 0.101%, while New Zealand yields dropped -7.2 bp after the RBNZ pushed out its forecast for a rate hike by a year as it lowered its growth forecast. Stocks moved mostly higher during the Asian session, with Chinese markets rebounding and the CSI 300 rallying 2.55%, while the Shanghai Comp rose 1.88%, the Shenzen Comp 2.88%. Trade war concerns were put aside for now, despite Chinas announcement of 25% on an additional USD 16 bln of US imports, which matched Trumps latest move in the trade war. Separately the US also announced new sanctions on Russia. Japanese markets underperformed and Topix and Nikkei are down -0.15% and -0.05% respectively, but up from early lows as the yen moved down from overnight highs against the dollar. US futures are moving higher.

FX Action: The New Zealand Dollar has dropped sharply on the lead of RBNZs dovish guidance after the central bank left the official cash rate unchanged at 1.75%. The RBNZ signalled that a rate hike to 2.0% would come by December 2020, compared to its previous guidance for March 2020. In the nearer term, the central bank also stressed a neutral stance, saying that the next move could be a tightening or an easing. This was more dovish than markets had been anticipating, and NZDUSD dove by over 1% in making 0.6664, the lowest level seen since March 2016. NZDJPY declined by a slightly bigger magnitude, while AUDNZD rallied to a new high for the year. RBNZ Governor Orr said before parliament that the central bank is in watch and wait mode for now, and said during an interview with Reuters that the principal concern is low business confidence. He also affirmed that global trade tensions were not good for the open New Zealand economy, but said that current modelling wasnt showing much impact yet.

Charts of the Day

""


Main Macro Events Today

* Canadian Housing starts and NHPI Expectations New home prices are seen rising 0.1% after the flat reading in May and starts are projected to moderate to a 220.0k pace from the lofty 248.1k growth rate in June.

* US PPI and Jobless Claims Expectations Headline and core PPI are projected to rise 0.1% in July, following a 0.3% increase in both measures in June, while initial jobless claims are estimated to fall 6k to 212k in the week ended August 4, following a 218k reading in the week of July 28.

* Japanese Preliminar GDP Q2 It is anticipated at 0.3% q/q from the 0.2% in May. The 0.2% contraction was the first after nine straight quarters of growth and surely was a disappointment for the BoJ, which left its accommodative policy in place last week.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
: 1 (: 27 2018 14:54)
: 850
Date : 10th August 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 10xth August 2018.


""


FX News Today

European Fixed Income Outlook: 10-year Bund yields are down -2.0 bp at 0.352% as of 6:09 GMT, versus declines of -1.8 bp and -1.1 bp in Treasury and JGB yields. Bonds are supported by a fresh rise in risk aversion that put pressure on stock markets during the Asian session. European stock futures are heading south in tandem with US futures. The spiral of tariffs is weighing on the global outlook and in Europe Brexit concerns and now also worries that European banks could be hit by the fallout from the crisis in Turkey and the slide in the lira is underpinning the flight to safety. The FT reported that the ECBs supervisory arm has raised concerns about the exposure of some banks. The calendar is picking up today, with the focus on UK GDP numbers for the second quarter. The UK and France also released production numbers for June, Sweden and Norway have inflation data.

FX Update: The Dollar has rallied strongly into the London interbank open, driving EURUSD to a 13-month low of 1.1448, Cable to fresh one-year lows under 1.2800 and AUDUSD to three-week lows. The Greenback has also posted gains against most other currencies, most notably the Turkish Lira, which has tumbled to fresh record lows. As the Turkish lira continues to slide concerns a growing at the ECBs Single Supervisory Mechanism is raising concerns about the exposure of some of the Eurozones biggest lenders to Turkey, including BBVA, UniCredit and BNP Paribas according to a FT report, citing two people familiar with the matter. The risk is that Turkish borrowers may not be hedged against the plunge in the lira and may begin to default on foreign currency loans. Turkish Treasury and Finance Ministry said yesterday that banks and non financial corporations face no fx or liquidity risk. BBVA, UnitCredit and BNP, but also HSBC and ING have banking operations in Turkey.

USDJPY has lifted out of a two-week low, while Yen crosses have traded lower, partly driven by flagging global equity markets and partly in the wake of above-forecast Japanese Q2 GDP data, which rose 0.5% q/q, above the median forecast for a 0.3% q/q rise. USDJPY has lifted toward 111.0 after earlier printing a two-week low at 110.67. The Dollars ascent has been concomitant with a bout of risk aversion on investor concerns about an escalating trade war, and the impact of US sanctions on Turkey and Iran. Beijing today doubled down in the face of domestic criticism about its stance in the trade spate with the US.

Charts of the Day

""


Main Macro Events Today

* UK GDP Expectations GDP should come in at 0.4% q/q and to 1.3% y/y from respective Q1 figures of 0.3% q/q and 1.2% y/y.

* UK Manufacturing and Industrial Production Expectations The Industrial production is expected to rise by 0.4% m/m in June, rebounding from the 0.4% contraction of May, with the y/y figure seen at 0.8% after 0.8% y/y growth in May. The Manufacturing production anticipated at 1.0% y/y from 1.1% seen in May.

* US CPI and Core CPI A 0.2% increase in the July headline CPI is expected, following a benign 0.1% gain in June. The y/y headline index should be 2.9% in July, steady from June. The core index should also hold steady at 2.3%.

* Canadian Unemployment data A 15.0k gain is expected in total jobs during July following the 31.8k gain in June. The unemployment rate is seen slipping to 5.9% after perking up to 6.0% in June from the 40-year low 5.8% in May as more people looked for work in June.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
: 1 (: 27 2018 14:54)
: 850
Date : 13th August 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 13th August 2018.


""


Main Macro Events This Week

Sanctions, tariffs, and trade frictions have increased market nervousness, but so far theres been little observable real sector impact. Nevertheless, the meltdown in the Turkish Lira after the US doubled down on tariffs, raised worries over a full blown financial crisis with global repercussions. European markets shuddered over the exposure of its banking sector. And the ensuing drop in equities sent yields sharply lower too. While the fear of contagion will result in nervous trading this week, the problems appear more endemic to Turkey than systemic to the global financial sphere.

United States: There are plenty of US data reports to go around this week, though its concentrated on Wednesday and Thursday, and most should show the economy continues to hum at a solid clip. But the releases may only provide a distraction with the focus still on sanctions and tariffs. July retail sales headlines (Wednesday), which are expected at a 0.3% increase. That would be a positive start to Q3. July industrial production (Wednesday) is projected to rise 0.2%, after rising 0.6% in June. The Empire State index (Wednesday) is estimated to slip to 20.0, from 22.6 in July and compares to an 8-month high of 25.0 in June. The Philly Fed index (Thursday) should decline to 23.0 in August, from 25.7, which would be just off the 6-month average of 25.2.

Q2 nonfarm productivity (Wednesday) is estimated to climb to a 2.5% pace, from a soft 0.4% reading in Q1. The Q2 gain should be driven by a 5.2% increase in output. However, the underlying trend in productivity remains disappointing and is one of the big mysteries faced by the Fed. Housing starts (Thursday) should rebound 7.4% in July to 1.260 mln, partially reversing a 12.3% drop in June. The weakness in June was in both single- and multi-family starts and we see a rebound in July. Trade prices (Tuesday) should post gains of 0.1% in July for both imports and exports, following respective -0.4% and 0.3% readings in June. In July, we expect an increase in petroleum import prices, but that could be partially outweighed by a stronger Dollar as well as tariffs which may restrain import prices. Import prices ex-petroleum are expected to rise 0.1%. The preliminary August Michigan sentiment reading (Friday) is expected to rise to 98.5, from 97.9 in July.

Canada: Canadas data highlight also appears at the end of the week. This time it is CPI (Friday), projected to grow at a 2.5% y/y pace in July, matching the 2.5% y/y clip in June. CPI is seen rising 0.1% on a month comparable basis in July after rising 0.1% m/m in May and June. Bank of Canada projected a run-up to 2.5% CPI growth rates, so the July and June reports will not move the needle on the policy outlook. Meanwhile, June manufacturing shipment values (Thursday) are seen rising 1.0% m/m after the 1.4% gain in May. The calendar also has the July Teranet HPI on Tuesday. Existing home sales for July are expected Wednesday. The ADP employment figures for July will be released on Thursday. There is nothing from Bank of Canada this week.

Europe: This weeks calendar focuses mainly on Q2 growth indicators and final July inflation readings, which are unlikely to hold many surprises. German ZEW investor confidence, though, will be watched very carefully, especially against the background of growing concerns over the exposure of European banks to Turkey, which is sliding deeper into crisis. Coupled with lingering concerns about Italys political situation, this is threatening to further add to a widening of spreads and will spark fears of a flaring up of the debt crisis.

The first release of German Q2 GDP (Tuesday) is expected to show a slight acceleration, while Eurozone Q2 GDP (Tuesday) is likely to be confirmed at 0.3% q/q. The recovery is ticking along, but the balance of risks is starting to tip to the downside with Turkey now adding to bank concerns and volatility on bond markets. With risk aversion spiking higher on Friday, the timing of the responses to the latest ZEW Investor Confidence survey (Tuesday) will play a larger than usual role. The busy calendar also has Eurozone production and trade data for June, which will be overshadowed, however, by the 2nd reading of Q2 GDP numbers.

UK: The calendar is highlighted by the release of monthly labor data covering June and July (Tuesday), July inflation figures (Wednesday) and July retail sales (Thursday). The labor report is expected to show unemployment holding unchanged at 4.2% in June, and average household earnings to come in with 2.5% y/y and 2.7% y/y growth in both the including- and ex-bonus figures, which would match the respective growth rates that were seen in the month prior. Steady wage growth, which has been running above inflation for some months now, was one of the justifications BoE gave behind its decision to tighten monetary policy this month. The inflation is anticipated to remain steady at 2.4% y/y in July. As for retail sales, a rebound of 0.2% m/m is expected after the 0.5% contraction in June, which had been an unexpectedly weak figure, blamed on hot weather and the distraction of the World Cup for a good portion of the population.

Japan: The Revised June industrial production is due on Tuesday. Preliminary production dropped 2.1% in June, and slid 1.2% y/y. The July trade report (Thursday) is expected to see the previous JPY 720.8 bln surplus flip to a JPY 100.0 bln deficit.

China: Chinese July industrial production (Tuesday) is forecast to rise to 6.2% y/y from 6.0%, while July retail sales (Tuesday) should increase to a 9.2% y/y pace from 9.0% in June. July fixed investment (Tuesday) is estimated slowing slightly to 5.9% y/y from 6.0%.

Australia: The July employment (Thursday) is expected to rise 25.0k after the 50.9k bounce in June. The unemployment rate is seen at 5.4%, matching the rate in June. The wage price index (Wednesday) is seen expanding 0.5% (q/q, sa) in Q2 after the matching the 0.5% rise in Q1. The index is expected to grow at a 2.0% y/y pace in Q2 from 2.1% in Q1. RBA governor Lowe (Friday) appears before the House of Representatives Standing Committee on Economics. Assistant Governor (Economic) Ellis speaks at the Australian National University (Friday). RBAs Deputy Head of Payments Policy Department Harris (Thursday) participates in a panel discussion at the Risk Australia 2018 Conference.

New Zealand: In New Zealand, PPI-output and PPI-input for Q2 are due Friday.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
: 1 (: 27 2018 14:55)
: 850
Date : 14th August 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 14th August 2018.


""


FX News Today

European Fixed Income Outlook: German 10-year Bund yields jumped higher from the off and as of 06:19 GMT, are up 1.8 bp at 0.326%, underperforming Treasuries and JGBs, which showed rates rising 1.6 bp and 1.0 bp respectively. Stronger than expected growth numbers at the start of the session added pressure on Bunds, after core yields already started to back up again as stock markets stabilized and Turkey jitters receded somewhat. Japanese markets bounced back overnight and European stock futures are moving higher alongside US futures. Bundesbanks Wuermeling suggested one should not over dramatize the risk of Turkey contagion, adding that ECB didnt see the need for a risk meeting so far. As long as there is not a further dramatic escalation, the turbulence is not expected to derail ECBs course towards a phasing out of QE. Already released German July HICP was confirmed at 2.1% y/y. Still to come are German ZEW confidence, the 2nd reading of Q2 Eurozone GDP and UK labour market data.

FX Update: Safe haven positioning were unwound some today, which saw the Dollar and Yen traded softer against most other currencies after Ankara managed to halt the rout of the Lira, which in turn brought a reprieve in still-fragile global markets. Most stock markets found a footing in Asia, and USA500 futures are showing a 0.3% gain, reversing most of yesterdays regular-sessions losses, though Chinese markets were an exception, declining after a batch of economic data showed the economy to have hit a rough patch, while investment growth was shown to have reached a record low. EURUSD settled around the 1.1400 mark, above yesterdays 13-month low at 1.1365. USDJPY recouped back toward the 111.0 level after posting a seven-week low at 110.11 yesterday. PBoC set the reference rate for USDCNY at 6.8695, versus 6.8629 yesterday. Chinas statistics bureau said that the weaker Yuan, which has declined the most against the Dollar since April on record (in the era of the prevailing regime), and perhaps aiming to counter the wrath of President Trump, was a reflection of the Feds tightening cycle. AUDUSD firmed above 0.7770, finding a footing after 3 consecutive days of declines. Australia data showing business confidence rising provided the Aussie a supporting influence.

Charts of the Day

""


Main Macro Events Today

* UK Average Earnings Index Expectations Average Household Earnings expected to come in with 2.5% y/y and 2.7% y/y growth in both the including- and ex-bonus figures, which would match the respective growth rates that were seen in the month prior.

* UK Unemployment Rate Expectations The labour report expected to show unemployment holding unchanged at 4.2% in June.

* Eurozone GDP Expectations Eurozone Q2 GDP is likely to be confirmed at 0.3% q/q.

* German ZEW Economic Sentiment Expectations A slight improvement is anticipated in the headline number to -24.0, from -24.7 in the previous month.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
: 1 (: 27 2018 14:55)
: 850
Date : 15th August 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 15th August 2018.


""


FX News Today

European Fixed Income Outlook: 10-year Bund yields are down -0.6 bp in early trade at 0.318%, underperforming versus Treasuries and JGBs which lost -1.4 bp and -1.1 bp respectively as risk aversion picked up again during the Asian session. Turkey slapped additional tax on American goods rather than trying to defuse the situation and the central bank is still shying away from a rate hike to stabilize the currency. Stocks were under pressure in Japan and China and US futures are also heading south, but European futures are moving higher in opening trade after strong growth data out of the Eurozone yesterday. Todays calendar focuses on UK inflation data and events include a German 30-year auction. Italy is closed for a public holiday.

FX Update: The Dollar has posted broad gains amid a backdrop of rekindling risk aversion. Turkeys Erdogan escalated the confrontation with the US by announcing tariffs on US cars, alcohol and cigarettes. Chinese stocks came under pressure again, and PBoC set the USDCNY reference rate at 6.8856, the highest since May 2017, up from yesterdays fixing at 6.8695. Both the Bank of Indonesia and HKMA have intervened to support their respective currencies. The USDIndex posted a 14-month high at 96.87 while EURUSD concurrently printed a 13-month low at 1.1316. Cable traded below 1.2700 for the first time since June 2017, and AUDUSD fell to its lowest levels since January 2017. USDJPY posted an eight-day high of 111.43 amid a broader bid for the Dollar, though a weakening in stock markets in Asia capped gains, which stimulated Yen safe-haven demand.

Charts of the Day

""


Main Macro Events Today

* UK Consumer Price Index Expectations CPI expected to remain steady at 2.4% y/y in July.

* US Retail Sales Expectations July retail sales headlines expected at a 0.3% increase, with a 0.5% ex-auto gain. That would be a positive start to Q3.

* US Industrial Production and Empire Index- Expectations July industrial production is projected to rise 0.2%, after rising 0.6% in June. The Empire State index is estimated to slip to 20.0, from 22.6 in July and compares to an 8-month high of 25.0 in June.

Support and Resistance Level

""


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
: 1 (: 27 2018 14:55)
: 850
Date : 16th August 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 16th August 2018.


""


FX News Today

Asian Market Wrap: 10-year Treasury yields are up 1.8 bp at 2.880%, 10-year JGBs up 0.7 bp at 0.094% as of 05:35GMT, as stocks move up from early lows on trade talk hopes. Asian sold off early in the session amid concerns over global growth and particularly China, after a Sino-related tech slump saw Wall Street heading south yesterday. Reports that China and the US are preparing a low level round helped to put a floor under markets, however, and mainland China bourses managed to move higher, while other indices are up from early lows. Topix and Nikkei are down -0.78% and -0.21% respectively. The Hang Seng is still down -0.395, but CSI 300 and Shanghai Comp are now up 0.61% and -0.20% respectively. The Kospi slumped -0.87% after returning from holiday and the ASX 200 is down -0.035. Meanwhile, US futures are moving higher with Chinese markets. Oil prices are slightly up from lows and the September US oil future is trading at USD 65.10 per barrel.

FX Update: The Dollar and the Yen have both weakened, giving back recent gains amid an improvement in risk appetite. The US and China have agreed on a new round of trade talks, while Turkey has managed to halt the rout of the Lira and secure major investments from Qatar and Chinas Alibaba. The USDIndex (DXY) is showing a 0.3% decline, at 96.44, heading into the London interbank open, while EURUSD is concurrently showing a 0.3% gain, earlier printing a two-session high of 1.1397, putting in some space from yesterdays 13-month low at 1.1316. USDJPY has settled in the upper 110.00s after printing a low in Tokyo at 110.46. AUDJPY, viewed as a forex market proxy on risk appetite in global markets, is showing the biggest move with just over a 0.5% gain. Over the near-term, the Dollar and the Yen will likely remain apt to weaken before settling as developments on the latest phase of Sino-US negotiations are awaited.

Charts of the Day

""


Main Macro Events Today

* UK Retail Sales expected to grow by 3% YoY in July.

* US Housing Starts expected to increase to 1.26 mln in July, compared to 1.17 mln in June, with building permits also expected to increase breaking the 1.3 mln barrier.

* US Initial Jobless Claims stabilisation to approximately 215,000 slightly up from 213,000 from last week. Continued jobless claims are expected to decrease slightly to 1.75 mln from 1.755 mln last week.

Support and Resistance Level

""


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Dr Nektarios Michail
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
: 1 (: 27 2018 14:56)
: 850
Date : 17th August 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 17th August 2018.


""


FX News Today

FX Update: USDJPY has continued to trade with little direction, lodged in the upper 110.00s. Ditto for the Yen crosses today, which are trading at about the same levels they were this time yesterday. Stock markets have remained stable, and PBoC lifted the Yuans at the fixing today, which prompted a bid, albeit modest, for the Australian Dollar. There is a feeling of wariness behind the calm, with the recent strength of the Dollar having exposed vulnerabilities in a number of emerging world economies that have a high proportion of borrowing in the U.S. currency (Turkey, South Africa, and Argentina, among others). Markets are also looking to next weeks new round of low level talks between the US and China on trade with some skepticism going on given recent failed attempts for dialogue.

Asian Market Wrap: 10-year Treasury yields are up 0.4 bp at 2.879%, while JGB yields fell back -0.2 bp to 0.087% as stock markets moved broadly higher in Asia after a strong close on Wall Street. Earnings reports and trade talk hopes helped to lift sentiment in the US, with most markets in Asia, ex China, posting gains. The Topix is up 0.67%, the Nikkei 0.42% and the Hang Seng managed a gain of 0.58% so far. Mainland China bourses underperformed, however, and the CSI 300 lost -0.56%, the Shanghai Comp -0.35%, amid lingering concerns about the health of the Chinese economy, with bonds underperforming and the 10-year yield jumping 4.3 bp. Trade talks with the US may be resuming but Trump stressed that the US is not going to any agreement until they get a better deal that is fair, signalling that he continues to push for more concessions. US futures are trading mixed with gains in the Dow Jones future contrasting with losses in S&P and NASDAQ futures. Oil prices meanwhile are little changed and the September contract is trading at USD 65.45 per barrel.

Charts of the Day

""


Main Macro Events Today

* Euro Area Consumer Price Index expected come out at 2.1% YoY in July, same as last month. Core CPI should also remain stable at 1.1%.

* Canada Consumer Price Index both CPI and the Bank of Canada core CPI for July are expected to remain stable at 2.5% and 1.3% respectively.

* US Consumer Sentiment forecast of a small rise in the August index to 98 compared to 97.8 in July.

Support and Resistance Level

""


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Dr Nektarios Michail
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
: 1 (: 27 2018 14:56)
: 850
Date : 20th August 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 20th August 2018.


""


Main Macro Events This Week

Turkey, trade, and tariffs dominated the headlines last week, though so far its difficult to quantify any real economic effects. Negative references to tariffs were widespread in the University of Michigan consumer sentiment report and have been noted in the Feds Beige Book. Trump warned that the US would not take the issue sitting down, with the Treasury prepping more sanctions/tariffs and rating agencies downgrading Turkish debt to junk rating. Also, the Feds Jackson Hole symposium begins on Thursday, with Chair Powells keynote address Friday. The global data calendar is thin and will keep the focus on other exogenous and geopolitical factors.

Sino-US trade talks will resume this week with low level talks scheduled for Wednesday and Thursday. Just the whiff of a resumption in negotiations was sufficient to staunch a probe below 25k in the Dow and 2.8k in the S&P 500 last week. While any major breakthrough on the thorny issue seems doubtful in the near term, reports of a possible Trump-Xi summit helped boost Wall Street further heading into the weekend. The WSJ indicated negotiators are working on a road map for talks on trade issues that could end with a meeting between the two leaders at multilateral summits in November. That may not forestall the next round of $200 bln in US tariffs on Chinese products by month-end, though substantive progress could buy some time. Note that Mexico cited progress on NAFTA negotiations and hopes for a conclusion mid-week, pending lingering issues on the rules of origin in the auto sector. A breakthrough on Mexico/NAFTA represents a very bullish signaling risk.

United States: The week of August 20 will be relatively light on the US data front, but the minutes of the July 31-August 1 FOMC meeting (Wednesday) will likely be of interest to market participants for any indications regarding the future course of policy. Markets see FOMC on course to raise rates two more times this year, in September and December, barring any shocks to the economy. Regarding the data, existing home sales (Wednesday) are expected to rise following declines in the prior three months. New home sales (Thursday) are also expected to rise, partially reversing June weakness.

FOMC minutes to the latest policy meeting arent likely to contain much for the markets as there werent any surprises from policymakers. As expected, the Fed left policy on hold with an 8-0 vote. The statement did include an upgrade to the growth outlook, consistent with what had been seen in the data leading up to the meeting. Growth was characterized as strong, up from the solid at the June 12-13 meeting. Inflation was said to have moved close to the 2% target. Rate guidance was repeated with Fed saying gradual increases in the target range with the federal funds rate will be consistent with sustained expansion in economic activity. Fed also reiterated risks to the outlook appear roughly balanced. The policy statement did not include any comments on trade frictions and tariffs, but these were likely discussed. However, other than the potential for slower growth and higher inflation, both of which have been mentioned in Beige Book reports, the discussion will most likely be hypothetical at this stage. Mexicos Economy Minister hoped to finish up bilateral issues with the US on NAFTA by the middle of this week, citing most issues as advancing well as talks continue. An agreement with Mexico on NAFTA would be the first significant trade deal for Trump after stepping up pressure on allies and foes alike.

Canada: Bank of Canada speakers feature this week, as Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins and Governor Poloz participate in panel discussions. However, markets expect that the appearances this week are unlikely to offer any fresh policy insights Wilkins (Monday) will participate in a panel discussion at the Central Bank Research Association, Frankfurt, Germany. Poloz is in Jackson Hole on Saturday (August 25) participating in a panel at the Feds annual gathering. The Bank will announce rates on September 5. Expectations suggest that BoC will look past the 3.0% y/y rise in July CPI amid temporary factors (seasonal jump in travel tour prices was a stand-out) and core inflation measures that are holding at 2.0%.

Europe: Market jitters continue with Turkey contagion risks and Sino-US trade relations remaining in focus and overshadowing the data calendar. ECB starts to slowly return from the summer break and Bundesbank President Weidmann will attend a Foreign Press Club in Berlin on Thursday. However, markets do not expect ECB to turn dovish, despite the renewed widening of Eurozone spreads and the spike in Italian yields. ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts, similar to the FOMC minutes, is expected to come out on Thursday as well.

The latest sell-off in Italian assets was to a large extent related to confrontational comments from Deputy Prime Minister Salvini, who implied that EU deficit rules were partly to blame for the Genoa bridge disaster as they prevented necessary maintenance. The rise in Italian yields is less a speculative attack as markets fear that the populist government could be flirting with an exit from the monetary union. Italy appears to be more sensitive to Turkey contagion, while the countrys effective exposure may suggest this is also related to political resistance to severing the link between bank and government debt, which remains higher in Italy than in other major Eurozone countries. Italy may still need ECB, but the country is also a litmus test for the view that a too accommodative ECB policy is reducing the kind of market pressure that forces governments to implement structural reforms.

UK: The calendar is relatively light this week, though Brexit negotiations, which recommenced last Thursday after a summer hiatus, will continue and will likely generate some potentially market-moving headlines. As has usually been the case, anything that points towards a no-deal exit from the EU could be taken as a Sterling selling cue, and anything suggesting that a deal can be worked out could be taken as a Sterling buying cue. Cable last week racked up a sixth consecutive week of declines, with political and associated Brexit-related risks keeping the Pound in a lower trading band. Latvias foreign minister said on Friday that there was a 50-50 chance for a no-deal Brexit, which UKs foreign minister Hunt concurred with, remarking that time is running out. The main data this week are monthly government borrowing figures (Tuesday), the August CBI surveys for industrial trends (Tuesday), and distributive sales (Thursday).

Japan: Consensus expects that the June all-industry index (Wednesday) will increase 0.3% m/m versus the prior 0.1% increase. The July inflation data will be the weeks focal point. The national CPI (Friday) consensus forecast suggests a rise to a 0.4% y/y rate from 0.7% last month, while core inflation is expected to remain relatively stable at 0.6% y/y. Inflation still remains well below BoJs 2% target.

Australia: RBA governor Lowe (Tuesday) is expected to speak at an Australian Securities and Investments Commission event. Assistant Governor (Financial Services) Debelle will also speak about low inflation at the Economic Society of Australia Business Luncheon on Wednesday.

New Zealand: Retail sales will be out on Tuesday, with imports, exports and the trade balance expected to come out on Friday.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Dr Nektarios Michail
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
: 1 (: 27 2018 14:57)
: 850
Date : 21st August 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 21st August 2018.


""


FX News Today

Asian Market Wrap: 10-year Treasury yields are up 1.4 bp at 2.833%, as the USD weakened 10-year JGB yields fell back -0.2 bp at 0.083% and yields picked up in Australia and New Zealand. Reuters reported that Trump accused China and Europe of manipulating their currencies, which followed on the heels of comments lamenting Feds rate hikes. Asian stock markets are mostly higher after muted gains on Wall Street yesterday. Japanese indices moved up from early lows as the Yen weakened and while the Topix is still down -0.27%, the Nikkei is up 0.20%. The Hang Seng gained 0.37%, while mainland China indices continued to outperform as state-backed funds were seen buying stocks to help stabilize the market. The CSI 300 is up 1.84%, and the Shanghai Comp 1.39% higher. US equity futures are posting small gains. Things may look more stable on the surface and Turkish markets at least are closed now for the rest of the week, but EM jitters continue as Venezuelas 95% devaluation takes hold.

FX Update: The Fed has become an unexpected focus due to the presidents remarks regarding Chairman Powell, along with comments from FOMC voter Bostic, both in front of the FOMC minutes of the latest policy meeting due Wednesday, the Jackson Hole symposium beginning Thursday, and Powells speech on Friday. Reports that Trump again commented on his Fed chairman, wanting a less hawkish stance, along with WSJs indication that Fed is debating the speed of its QE unwind, knocked yields lower and led to an apparent squeeze at the long end amid warnings of a record speculative short position in the 10- and 30-year maturities. Intermediate and longer dated yields are down over 4 bps, with the 5-year challenging 2.70% and the 10-year testing 2.80%, while the long bond has slipped further below the 3% level, even as Wall Street extends gains.

Charts of the Day

""


Main Macro Events Today

* UK Public Sector Net Borrowing net borrowing is expected to have decreased in July by GBP2.3bln, compared to an increase of GBP4.5bln last month.

* New Zealand Retail Sales Q2 retail sales are expected to increase by 0.4% on a QoQ basis, compared to an increase of 0.1% last quarter.

Support and Resistance Level

""


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Dr Nektarios Michail
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
: 1 (: 27 2018 14:57)
: 850
Date : 23rd August 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 23rd August 2018.


""


FX News Today

FX Update: The Dollar has lifted after five straight down sessions. The USD index (DXY) is showing a 0.3% gain heading into the London open, at 95.41, rising above yesterdays high but remains well below the 14-month high seen last week at 96.98. EURUSD has concurrently sunk to a two-day low of 1.1542, putting in some distance from yesterdays two-week peak at 1.1623. USDJPY has also been on the up, printing an eight-day high of 110.93, and extending the rebound from Mondays eight-week low at 109.77. Wall Street finished moderately yesterday, and US500 futures are presently flat, while US Treasury yields are lower. Fed funds futures are showing 50-50 odds for a 25 bp hike in December. There is conjecture among Fed watchers that Chairman Powell will retain a hawkish tone in his keynote speech on Friday, despite President Trumps calls for looser policy. Elsewhere, the Australian Dollar has taken a tumble amid political turmoil regarding leadership challenges faced by Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull. AUDUSD has lost over 0.7% in falling to six-day lows under 0.7300.

FOMC minutes: The most important point in the minutes was that many participants believed another hike would be appropriate soon, which could be interpreted as an indication for a September tightening. Participants noted that the funds rate was moving closer to the range of estimate of a neutral level, with a number of participants emphasizing uncertainty in estimates of that level, and agreeing that accommodative language may no longer be appropriate fairly soon. Participants generally noted the strength of the economy in Q2, as well as favorable factors that were supporting above-trend growth, including financial conditions. But several stressed that transitory factors may have played a role, including an outsized increase in exports. All officials viewed trade as an important source of uncertainty. There was some discussion regarding firms having greater scope to increase prices due to strong demand or rising input costs. There was also talk over the implications of the flattening yield curve. The minutes indicated that balance sheet discussions would continue in the fall.

Asian Market Wrap: 10-year Treasury yields are down -0.5 bp at 2.813% and 10-year JGBs fell back -0.2 bp to 0.083% amid a wider decline in Asian rates. Australian bonds outperformed as the ASX declined and AUD weakened as Prime Minister Turnbill faces leadership challenges. Elsewhere, stock markets traded mostly mixed, with mainland China and Hang Seng underperforming. Topix and Nikkei posted marginal gains of 0.02% and 0.18%, while Hang Seng and CSI were down -0.83% and -0.59% respectively as of 05:18GMT. The additional US and China tariffs come into effect in the middle of ongoing trade talks and China said it will lodge a complaint with the WTO. US stock futures are heading south after a mixed close yesterday and with the Fed minutes confirming that further rate hikes remain on the cards, but also showing some concern about the impact of possible prolonged trade battles. Markets are also looking ahead to the Jackson Hole meeting amid political risks for Trump from the legal battles of his former advisors.

Charts of the Day

""


Main Macro Events Today

* Jackson Hole Symposium The annual Jackson Hole Symposium is hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City and is a forum for the top central bankers, policy experts and academics of the world who come together to discuss policy issues. Comments and speeches from central bankers and other influential officials can create significant market volatility. This years topic relates to the changing market structure and its implications for monetary policy. Most awaited speech is by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.

* ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts The accounts, similar to the FOMC minutes, aim to provide an overview of financial, economic and monetary developments aimed to provide the rationale behind policy decisions. Currency response depends on the accounts content.

* US Jobless Claims Consensus forecasts expect that claims will increase slightly compared to last week.

* New Zealand Trade Balance Trade balance expected to deteriorate in July, registering a $0.5bln decline.

* Japan Consumer Price Index CPI expected to decline and stand at about 0.4% YoY, compared to 0.7% last month.

Support and Resistance Level

""


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Dr Nektarios Michail
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
: 1 (: 27 2018 14:58)
: 850
Date : 27th August 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 27th August 2018.


""


Main Macro Events This Week

Fed Chairman Powell justified the FOMCs gradualist approach to monetary policy in his Jackson Hole speech. He emphasized the uncertain nature of the two key policy variables the natural rate of unemployment and the neutral real rate of interest. And in noting the difficulty in using them as navigational tools, he also solidified Greenspans risk management strategy still in effect today around the world as central bankers attempt to balance the risks of moving too quickly and choking off growth, or too slowly and allowing a destabilizing overheating.

United States: US markets rallied to end the week on a positive note after Chairman Powell showed no willingness to take on a more hawkish stance, even in the face of sustained strength in economic activity. And whats more important, he doesnt see signs of any overheating and suggested it might be prudent to look beyond inflation for signs of excesses. That means the FOMC need not become more hawkish but can maintain its gradualism policy stance. The USA500 and NASDAQ hit fresh all-time highs in the process.

Though the US economy continues to diverge from the rest of the world, its strength can help support Asian and European strength in the US, along with an ongoing accommodative posture from ECB and BoJ, remain supportive meanwhile, continuing to support global gains. There are several data releases of interest this week, including the second look at GDP, along with income and PCE, but none will alter the general outlook. Also highlighting this week is July personal income and consumption (Thursday), which will help fine tune GDP forecasts. It also includes the FOMCs favoured inflation guide, the PCE deflator. Consumer confidence (Tuesday) should rise to 128.0 in August, from 127.4 in July. Confidence readings remain at elevated levels, close to the 17-year high of 130.0 registered in February and this trend is expected to continue over coming months, despite the noise from trade and politics. Preliminary August Michigan sentiment (Friday) is likely to slip down.

Canada: In Canada, GDP is the highlight, with data out for June and Q2. June GDP (Thursday) is expected to rise 0.2% (m/m, sa) after the 0.5% surge in May. Q2 real GDP (Thursday) is anticipated to grow 3.2% (q/q, saar), accelerating from the 1.3% rate of expansion in Q1. A pick-up in consumption spending and a positive contribution from net exports should drive Q2 GDP growth. A 3.2% Q2 GDP gain would overshoot BoCs 2.8% estimate. Yet growth looks to moderate in Q3 and the details of the Q2 GDP report should align with the Banks views, suggesting that the report will not threaten policy gradualism. The current account (Wednesday) is seen running a -C$15.0 bln deficit in Q2 from -C$19.5 bln in Q1 as the goods trade deficit narrowed. The July industrial product price index (Friday) and the CFIBs Business Barometer sentiment index (Thursday) round out the docket. There is nothing from Bank of Canada this week.

Europe: ECBs unofficial summer break is slowly coming to an end and on their return officials will face an increasingly uncertain world that is bound to fuel diversions of opinion at the council. Trade jitters, Brexit risks and the potential fallout from Turkeys troubles are only part of the multitude of risks that have underpinned volatility on peripheral bond markets and seen Italian officials in particular calling on ECB to scrap the planned phasing out of net asset purchases.

The lack of reform will further undermine competitiveness and growth potential going forward at a time, when external risks are mounting. Indeed, despite still positive growth rates, the Eurozone is not well equipped to deal with another major crisis, as ECB has much less room to maneuver this time around. Data releases this week are likely to confirm the overall picture of ongoing economic expansion and a gradual pick up in underlying inflation. French Q2 GDP (Wednesday), is likely to be confirmed at just 0.2% q/q and the Italian reading (Friday) also at just 0.2% q/q leaving the focus on the more forward looking confidence indicators, which come in the form of the German Ifo (Monday) and the European Commissions ESI economic confidence indicator (Thursday). Against that background, the German official unemployment numbers (Thursday) are expected to drop a further -3K in August, which should leave the adjusted jobless rate at a very low 5.2%. The Eurozone unemployment rate remains considerably higher, but has been falling steadily and we expect a further decline to 8.2% with the July reading (Thursday), from 8.3% in June. Preliminary German HICP (Thursday) is seen steady at 2.1% y/y and French HICP (Friday) is expected to fall back marginally to 2.5% ) from 2.6%.

UK: UK markets are closed today for the UKs latest August public holiday. Political and associated Brexit-related risks remain in play, manifested mostly in the forex market by keeping the Pound in a lower trading band than it would be otherwise. The UK government last week issued advice for individuals and businesses in the event of a no-deal Brexit, which, while apparently aiming to put to rest some of the scare stories that have been circulating in the populace, served to bring home the level of disruption this scenario would have on businesses. Time is running out for negotiations to avoid the no-deal scenario, with Octobers EU leaders summit being the agreed on deadline. A known unknown wildcard is the risk that Prime Minister May will face as a leadership challenge in coming weeks. This weeks data calendar is fairly quiet, highlighted by the publication of monthly lending and money supply figures by BoE (Thursday) and the latest Gfk consumer sentiment survey (Friday).

Japan: The calendar doesnt get underway until Thursday, when July retail sales are due. Sales are expected to fall to a -0.5% y/y pace of contraction from 1.5% for large retailers, but accelerate slightly to a 1.8% y/y clip overall, from 1.7% previously. The remainder of data come on Friday. Tokyo August CPI should tick up to 1.1% y/y from 0.9% overall, and remain steady at 0.8% y/y on a core basis. July unemployment is expected steady at 2.4%, with the job offers/seekers ratio a touch higher at 1.63 from 1.62. July industrial production is penciled in rebounding 0.5% m/m versus the prior 2.1% decline. July housing starts and July construction orders are also due.

China: China reveals the official August CFLP manufacturing PMI (Friday), which is expected to slip to 51.0 from 51.2 in July, and is down from 51.9 in May. The markets will keep a close eye on the data as signs of slowing in manufacturing have been a worrying development in the last couple of months and especially as the tariff frictions have escalated.

Australia: A sparse slate has private capital expenditures and building permits on Friday. Private capital expenditures are expected to grow 0.5% in Q2 (q/q, sa) after the 0.4% rise in Q1. Building permits are projected to fall 3.0% in July after the 6.4% gain in June. There is nothing scheduled from RBA this week. The next event is the September 4 policy meeting, where we expect no change to the current 1.50% policy setting.

New Zealand: Building permits for July (Thursday) are the lone highlight. RBNZ provided dovish forward guidance this month along with no change in rates, saying rates will be steady through to 2020.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Dr Nektarios Michail
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
: 1 (: 27 2018 14:58)
: 850
Date : 28th August 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 28th August 2018.


"https://goo.gl/qEuFfb" !


FX News Today

Asian Market Wrap: 10-year Treasury yields pared some of their earlier gains and are down -0.2 bp on the day at 2.844%, 10-year JGB yields are still up 0.1 bp but at 0.088% also down from earlier highs as the buoyant mood on equities starts to fade and the Yen strengthened against the Dollar. Asian stock markets still benefited from hopes for a bilateral trade deal between the US and Mexico and mostly extended yesterdays gains after a strong close on Wall Street. Questions over where the deal will leave Canada seem to limit the room for further gains however, as investors clamour for detail. Topix and Nikkei are still up 0.26% and 0.19% respectively, but off highs. The Hang Seng managed to hang on to a modest 0.17% gain, while mainland China underperformed with CSI 300 and Shanghai Comp down -0.19% and -0.12% respectively. US futures are slightly higher, Oil prices fell back from highs above USD 69 per barrel.

FX Update: USDJPY flipped back above 111.00, continuing an oscillation of this level for a third consecutive session, holding below the three-week high that was printed on Friday at 111.48. Yen crosses have been more buoyant, with EURJPY and AUDJPY, for instance, posting respective 4- and 3-week highs during the Tokyo AM session, although both crosses have since come off by between 20 and 30 pips. The Yens overall weakness has been concomitant with the USA500 closing at a record high yesterday and generally upbeat tone in global equity markets. Yield differentials remains a fundamental bullish driver for USDJPY, but the risks being posed by the US-China trade war, which doesnt so far show any signs of cooling in the wake of the US-Mexican agreement in principle, has been capping upside potential in recent months, which is expected to remain the case. Regarding the US-China trade situation, Trump in the wake of his stage-managed Mexico announcement) that its just not the right time to talk right now. USDJPY has resistance at 111.48-50 and 112.15, and support at 110.93-95.

Charts of the Day

"https://goo.gl/epJ2Ge" !


Main Macro Events Today

* S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices Expectations expected to remain unchanged at 6.5% y/y for June.

* US Consumer confidence Expectations Consumer confidence should rise to 127.0 in August, from 127.4 in July. Confidence readings remain at elevated levels, close to the 17-year high of 130.0 registered in February and we expect this trend to continue over the coming months, despite the noise from trade and politics.

* US Goods Trade Balance Expectations The advance indicators for July should show a deterioration in the Trade Balance for Goods to -$70.5 bln (-$68.5 bln) after widening for the first time in four months to -$67.9 bln in June.

Support and Resistance Level

"https://goo.gl/p5uuUT" !


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
: 850
Date : 29th August 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 29th August 2018.


"https://goo.gl/sDHUnU" !


FX News Today

FX Update: The Dollar has traded firmer overall, although it has continued to hold steady in a narrow range against the Yen. USDCAD dropped to its lowest level since June 6, at 1.2887, driven by reports that Canada is ready to make significant concessions on diary to secure a trade deal with the US. This is potentially good news as it raises the chances for Congress to approve the White House agreement with Mexico in the context of a revamped NAFTA deal. Elsewhere, EURUSD extended yesterdays correction from the four-week peak at 1.1733, posting a 1.1674 low. AUDUSD fell to a two-day low at 0.7308, and Cable has seen a two-day low at 1.2854, with the Pound so far unaffected by news reports that the UK and the EU are likely to further push the deadline for a Brexit agreement to mid-November rather than Octobers EU summit. USDJPY, in contrast to other Dollar pairs, has posted less than a 20 pip range so far in the Tokyo trading, defined by 111.13 and 111.31, which continues a phase of tight consolidative price action into a fourth consecutive session. EURJPY and other Yen crosses, meanwhile, have declined moderately. PBoC set the USDCNH reference at 6.8072, fractionally up on yesterdays 6.8052.

Asian Market Wrap: 10-year Treasury yields are down -0.9 bp at 2.871%, pulling back from highs slightly over 2.85% yesterday. JGB yields are still up 0.1 bp at 0.089%, but also off earlier highs. Wall Street closed with marginal gains yesterday after the US500 pulled back from record highs over the 2900 mark, with Topix and Nikkei up 0.40% and 0.13% respectively amid optimism over U.S. growth after an improvement in consumer sentiment. Mainland China bourses are in the red, however, with investors remaining cautious despite reports that Canada is willing to make considerable concessions to secure a trade deal amid ongoing concerns over China-US trade prospects. As treasury yields are approaching 2.9% rate-sensitive shares start to feel the pressure. The Hang Seng moved sideways, while CSI 300 and Shanghai Comp are down -0.47% and -0.33% respectively. US futures are moving higher, though while oil prices are down.

Charts of the Day

"https://goo.gl/dHPQ8h" !


Main Macro Events Today

* US Q2 GDP results (USD, GMT 12:30) Event of the week. The Gross Domestic Product figure, is probably the most important economic data announcement for a country, closely followed by the unemployment rate. Usually, high growth or a better than expected number is seen as positive for the USD, while a low reading is negative. GDP growth is expected to remain at the same levels as the previous quarter.

* Canadian Current Account Balance (CAD, GMT 12:30) The Canadian current account balance for Q2 is expected, on the basis of consensus forecasts, to improve significantly from -19.5 bln to -15.2 bln. Usually, the more positive the better for the currency.

* Retail trade for July (JPY, GMT 23:50) The index captures the aggregate sales made for household or personal consumption. Consumer spending is a key important indicator for the Japanese economy, but consensus expectations is that July trade will decrease by 0.3%.

Support and Resistance Level

"https://goo.gl/cvx52d" !


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
: 850
Date : 03rd September 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 03rd September 2018.


"https://goo.gl/m8tE8k" !


Main Macro Events This Week

A shorter week due to a holiday for the US and Canada will resume on Tuesday, rather appropriately, as they both take a time out from trade talks, which will restart on Wednesday. The 90-day clock was set in motion by the Trump team, which notified Congress of its intent to sign a deal with Mexico, while still holding the door ajar for Canada. The deadline for public comment on the next round of $200 bln in tariffs on China also looms on Thursday, keeping trade as a focal point for the ambivalent markets to kick off the month of September. Emerging markets remain fragile as well, as the firmer Dollar, rising rates and global protectionism fears take a toll on sentiment.

United States: Employment will be the focus for the markets in the week of September 3. For the US economic calendar, front and center will be Fridays employment report, which is estimated to rise at 210k payrolls in August, following a tepid 157k gain in July. The jobless rate should slip to 3.8% from 3.9%. Overall, conditions in the labor market continue to be solid. Other data will include the ISM index (Tuesday) estimated to slip to 58.0 in August from 58.1 in July, which will still leave the index close to a 14-year high of 60.8 in February. Also, construction spending should rise 0.4% in July, partially reversing a weak -1.1% reading in June that followed strong gains of 1.3% and 1.7% in May and April respectively. Vehicle sales are expected to rise to 17.0 mln (Tuesday) from a 16.7 mln pace in July. The July sales rate reflected slowing car and truck sales, and in August we see a rebound in both. MBA mortgage data is due (Tuesday), along with the trade deficit expected to widen to -$49.8 bln in July, from -$46.3 bln. The ADP employment survey (Thursday) is forecast to rise 205k in August vs 219k in July. A boost is expected in Q2 productivity growth to 3.1% from 2.9%, with an associated upward revision to output growth to 5.0% from 4.8%, thanks to the upward revision to Q2 GDP growth to 4.2% from 4.1%, along with -0.8% in unit labor costs from -0.9%.

Canada: This week is highlighted by Bank of Canadas announcement (Wednesday), which it is widely expected to result in no change to the current 1.50% rate setting. BoC Governor Poloz was dovish on the pop to 3.0% y/y CPI growth in July, saying it was in line with their projection and due to transitory factors. GDP came in close to expectations for Q2, expanding 2.9% (BoC expected +2.8%). Economic data features August employment (Friday), seen rising 10.0k after the 54.1k gain in July. The unemployment rate is projected at 5.8%, matching Julys. The July trade report (Wednesday) is anticipated to show a widening to -C$1.6 bln from -C$0.6 bln in June. Exports are seen falling 1.0% after the 4.1% surge in June. Productivity (Wednesday) is expected to rise 0.3% in Q2 (q/q, sa) after the 0.3% drop in Q1. Building permits number (Thursday) is projected to gain 3.0% in July (m/m, sa) after the 2.3% drop in June. The Ivey PMI for August is due Friday. BoC Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins speaks on Thursday, presenting an economic progress report. A BoC official now presents forecast updates a day or so after the four announcements per year that do not correspond with the release of the Monetary Policy Report.

Europe: Trade risks and tariffs are back in focus, as ECB officials return from holidays. With the recovery still on, but risks from tariffs and Brexit clouding over the outlook, the council seems increasingly split on the timing and speed of policy normalization. With the end of Draghis term coming into sight, support for a less dovish central bank head may be gathering strength against that background. For now though, ECB speakers including Praet (Wednesday), Lautenschlaeger (Thursday) and Mersch (Monday) are likely to stick to the official line and promote patience, prudence, and persistence in monetary policy.

The data calendar this week includes final PMI readings as well German orders and production data for July, however data is not expected to fundamentally change the overall picture or outlook. Manufacturing (Monday) and services PMIs (Wednesday) are likely to confirm overall Eurozone readings at 54.6 and 54.4 respectively, leaving the Composite at 54.4. Both sectors continue to expand and job creation continues, although growth momentum is slowing down and uncertainty about the outlook is leaving its mark, as export order growth, in particular, continues to slow down. German manufacturing orders (Thursday) already slumped -4.0% m/m in June and we expect at least a partial rebound in the July numbers and a rise of 1.8% m/m. Similarly, production (Friday) is seen rising 0.4% m/m, after the -0.9% m/m contraction in June. The July IFO reading jumped higher and German PMIs remain at robust levels, which suggests a solid Q3 GDP number and the recovery in orders and production numbers, if confirmed, will verify that the German recovery remains intact. More up-to-date survey and manufacturing numbers are likely to overshadow the detailed reading of Eurozone Q2 GDP (Friday), which is likely to be confirmed at 0.4% q/q, with the breakdown expected to prove that domestic demand was the main driver of growth. Accelerating import growth meanwhile is keeping a light on net exports.

UK: Brexit will remain front and center as negotiations return to full swing this week following the summer holiday season. On the data front, the economic calendar this week is highlighted by the release of the August PMI surveys. The manufacturing PMI is expected (Monday) to come in at 53.8 after 54.0 in the month prior. Construction PMI (Tuesday) has us anticipating a dip to 55.0 following Julys 55.8. As for the services PMI (Wednesday), a rise has been forecast to 53.8 from Julys 55.5 reading. As-expected readings wouldnt likely have much impact on markets, which are presently predisposed to be most sensitive to any downside surprises given the backdrop of prevailing Brexit uncertainties and worries about global trade protectionism.

Japan: The August services PMI is due Wednesday. It fell to 51.3 in July, and was 51.6 a year ago. July personal income and consumption data are due Friday. The latter is expected to post a 1.0% y/y decline versus the prior -1.2% and has been in contraction since February.

China: The August services PMI (Wednesday) is forecast at 52.5, after tumbling 1.1 points to 52.8 in July. It was at 52.7 a year ago.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
: 850
Date : 04th September 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 04th September 2018.


"https://goo.gl/4hoH6d" !


FX News Today

Asian Market Wrap: Treasury and JGB yields are little changed at 2.86% and 0.10% respectively, as stocks drifted during the Asian session after yesterdays holiday in the US. Trade concerns and emerging market jitters remain in focus, with the difficult Canada and US talks, and Trumps latest round of China tariffs high on the agenda. The latter could be announced as early as Thursday. Argentina and Turkey meanwhile are still struggling to regain investor confidence. Turkeys central bank yesterday vowed to take action, as inflation hit 18%, sparking hopes that the long awaited rate hike will finally come. Argentina, meanwhile, launched fresh measures to stem the crisis. RBA left rates unchanged as expected, but estimated that the economy grew above trend in the first six months of the year and suggested inflation will pick up from 2019.

FX Update: The Dollar has traded generally firmer. EURUSD has dipped back under 1.1600, while the Cable has fallen to a one-week low of 1.2843, extending the Pound-driven losses of yesterday after the EUs Brexit negotiator Barnier all-but rejected the British governments proposed plan for a new trading deal. The Sterling has also posted fresh lows against the Euro and other currencies. USDJPY has lifted to a three-session high of 111.37, flipping back above the midway mark of the recent range, while AUDJPY, which was a big loser yesterday, has bounced back amid a 1%-plus rally in Chinese equity markets. The Australian Dollar, which has been correlating strongly with Chinese stocks, outperformed the US Dollar, posting a two-session high at 0.7235. Overall, market conditions have been calm today, though there a feeling that a storm is bearing down. Concerns remain about vulnerable foreign-currency indebted emerging market countries, while President Trump looks set to make a big ratchet up in the Sino-US trade war with the imposition of tariff hikes on a further $200 bln of Chinese imports, which, unless he has a sudden change of heart, could happen as soon as Thursday. Canada-US talks on trade will resume tomorrow.

Charts of the Day

"https://goo.gl/SJuxMf" !


Main Macro Events Today

* UK Construction PMI Expectations It is anticipated to dip to 55.0, following Julys 55.8.

* UK Inflation Report Hearings The BOE Governor and several MPC members testify on inflation and the economic outlook before the Parliaments Treasury Committee.

* RBA Gov Lowe Speech

* US ISM Manufacturing PMI Expectations It is estimated to slip to 58.0 in August, from 58.1 in July, which will still leave the index close to a 14-year high of 60.8 in February.

Support and Resistance Level

"https://goo.gl/1HgrsE" !


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

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Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

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